NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2c02d3458b88a3814f91ebdf6e000b7b9993ad9749c64da08b71b46c105d2f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Suns, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a4d…619abacked Heat | 45c | 5,662$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,114.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 55c | 3,819$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Suns | 53c | 2,000$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.86 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 45c | 1,841$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.63 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 61c | 1,271$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.73 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 45c | 1,082$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Suns | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Suns | 57c | 644$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.19 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat | 44c | 599.97$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.98 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Suns | 36c | 519$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.35 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Suns | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Suns | 58c | 495$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.1 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Heat | 42c | 441.7$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.78 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Heat | 69c | 433.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.69 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Suns | 36c | 388.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.53 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 55c | 365$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.78 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Heat | 42c | 350.62$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.36 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns | 55c | 286$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Suns | 57c | 280.7$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 238 | 47.1%112 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 47c | 252$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Suns | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Suns | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Heat | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Suns | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Suns | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Suns | 55c | 144.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…ff5bbacked Suns | 57c | 139.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Suns | 47c | 136.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 43c | 136.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Suns | 54c | 127$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Suns | 50c | 119.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Suns | 32c | 119$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Heat | 43c | 116.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Heat | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Suns | 57c | 102.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Heat | 53c | 101.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…0c7dbacked Heat | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…0c93backed Heat | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Heat | 42c | 73.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Suns | 56c | 60.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Suns | 59c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Heat | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Heat | 45c | 58.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 44c | 52.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Suns | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…cea7backed Heat | 45c | 52.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Heat | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Suns | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Suns | 59c | 40.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Suns | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5be…21f6backed Heat | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Suns | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f7…2633backed Suns | 53c | 37.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Suns | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Heat | 42c | 32.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Suns | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Heat | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Heat | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Suns | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Suns | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Suns | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Suns | 53c | 22.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Suns | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Heat vs. SunsHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.