NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72aae618dfb7145afebce0d291370d3f86451d1580e82927360baf79a85cb612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Suns, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5877…d894backed Suns | 52c | 24,109$12,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,536.76 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Heat | 49c | 12,091$5,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,205.18 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Suns | 53c | 11,390$6,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,032.06 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Suns | 53c | 9,821$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns | 49c | 9,673$4,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,741.06 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Heat | 48c | 9,661$4,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,013.05 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 48c | 7,849$3,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,113.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 49c | 4,307$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,192.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Heat | 51c | 4,234$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.6 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Heat | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Heat | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.18 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Suns | 50c | 2,703$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.5 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Heat | 52c | 2,115$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.38 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Heat | 48c | 1,916$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.32 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Suns | 49c | 1,410$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.68 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Suns | 49c | 1,202$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.08 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Suns | 50c | 1,014$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.24 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Heat | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Suns | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 50c | 523.32$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.98 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Suns | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Suns | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Suns | 56c | 354.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Heat | 47c | 331$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.43 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Heat | 51c | 322.38$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.97 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 50c | 297.19$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Suns | 54c | 293$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.22 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Suns | 49c | 285.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.77 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Heat | 51c | 262$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.38 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Heat | 50c | 233.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Heat | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…5f41backed Suns | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79b…cf30backed Heat | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Suns | 53c | 184$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Heat | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat | 52c | 150.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Suns | 46c | 141.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 47c | 116.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Heat | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Suns | 24c | 98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Heat | 46c | 66.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Suns | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4ac8backed Suns | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…5486backed Heat | 47c | 50.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Heat | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Suns | 50c | 48.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Heat | 50c | 48.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc43d…8928backed Suns | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Suns | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Suns | 49c | 45.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Heat | 51c | 41.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Suns | 51c | 40.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Heat | 47c | 39.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Suns | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…ebb2backed Suns | 49c | 35.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Heat | 53c | 31.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Suns | 47c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Suns | 50c | 30.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Heat | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Heat | 51c | 29.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Suns | 50c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Suns | 52c | 26.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Suns | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Suns | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…ccc1backed Heat | 48c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat | 49c | 21.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Heat | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Heat vs. SunsHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.