NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Suns: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2932083ba1a54bb3820692e4651ad056e78484156058a0f371fa7f0413e43248
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 15,208$7,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,270.38 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 53c | 12,919$6,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,072.06 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 4,380$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,139.74 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Under | 56c | 4,000$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.16 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 47c | 3,670$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.9 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 3,559$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 3,350$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.07 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 3,099$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.75 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 51c | 2,627$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.45 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 50c | 2,581$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.29 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 50c | 1,650$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 51c | 740$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.6 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 50c | 590$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.95 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 535.25$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 51c | 509.8$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Over | 50c | 438.06$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 398.12$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 287.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.43 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 201.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 41c | 126.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 117.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 53c | 116$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 54c | 104.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 219 | 48.9%107 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 50c | 78.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 48c | 78.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 27c | 74.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 226.5this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Heat vs. SunsHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.