NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Suns: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7aae929643e4f3ee6fd09f89984828bf83e5aba22e698679f3e5f579ea744a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d8a…e842backed Under | 53c | 48,896$25,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,073.18 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 19,029$9,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,084.2 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 48c | 8,999$4,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,315.69 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 47c | 8,000$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,760 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,289.99 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 53c | 6,289$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,955.68 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Under | 55c | 5,958$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.39 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 4,022$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.63 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 45c | 3,670$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.5 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Under | 52c | 2,468$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.68 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…c03fbacked Over | 47c | 2,125$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 48c | 2,123$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.83 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 1,576$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.79 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 50c | 1,538$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,495$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 1,398$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.43 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 46c | 1,341$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.42 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 53c | 930.97$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.55 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 876.82$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.93 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c0…c158backed Over | 45c | 822.22$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 755.04$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 720.31$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.32 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 54c | 710$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…4773backed Over | 48c | 584.94$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.74 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 504.75$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.71 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 47c | 339.16$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.41 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Over | 46c | 241.3$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 53c | 229.63$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…7a4ebacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Over | 47c | 211.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -15.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Over | 47c | 203$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 206 | 51%105 W · 101 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…1fdebacked Over | 48c | 200.74$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 156$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Over | 48c | 137.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Over | 48c | 121.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 112.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 49c | 95.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 48c | 95.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922e…7d04backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 87.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d5…5872backed Over | 49c | 86.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…c9bfbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…4fd2backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 54c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…c4aebacked Over | 48c | 45.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Under | 52c | 38.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c6…5004backed Over | 48c | 37.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 54c | 30.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…73febacked Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 47c | 21.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 227.5this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Heat vs. SunsHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 224.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.