TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump out as President by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,448,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,126,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,448,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 669 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x312e…8604backed Yes1c1,345,869$10,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,003.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5af…eda0backed Yes0c843,119$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bc…59d9backed Yes1c490,713$3,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,995.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1989…4c55backed Yes3c392,588$10,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,107.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd86…f2c8backed Yes1c379,294$4,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,186.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes4c270,030$11,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,434.74828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2500…e812backed Yes3c203,416$5,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,932.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3de…5d6dbacked Yes2c189,589$4,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,291.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x803d…135dbacked Yes3c170,724$4,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,866.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c6…4710backed Yes1c150,308$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe810…8fc5backed Yes2c138,010$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fd8…8e08backed Yes2c130,652$2,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde97…3b53backed Yes1c125,261$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd57e…91c9backed Yes0c125,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3df…fe65backed Yes1c117,266$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes0c101,841$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb3…0519backed Yes1c88,251$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33e…6c32backed Yes2c85,635$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0f…92ffbacked Yes1c80,846$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+252.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1793…6af7backed Yes3c78,301$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,404.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c73,897$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.193912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x154a…08c6backed Yes2c68,739$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9b…0819backed Yes0c67,393$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c55…df0abacked Yes1c60,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c56,919$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.57610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c56,564$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.541343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c55,131$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4280%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd1d…299bbacked Yes0c55,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45db…8f65backed Yes2c50,359$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5554…b17ebacked Yes2c48,000$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9525…4264backed Yes3c47,567$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d5d…0ee8backed Yes5c44,761$2,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,27210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes3c43,617$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.4323.1%1 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-77.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fce…e044backed Yes2c42,279$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df6…9785backed Yes2c41,993$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2e…a4a2backed Yes1c41,716$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a31…3b6dbacked Yes1c39,367$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae40…26dfbacked Yes0c38,498$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920c…5b0ebacked Yes1c36,938$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28d8…89c9backed Yes14c36,078$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167b…9ae9backed Yes2c34,355$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bf5…0accbacked Yes1c33,920$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes4c31,707$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.64728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick6cpaid+798.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes2c30,234$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df3…887abacked Yes4c28,803$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee6…4050backed Yes2c28,582$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c28,116$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.12150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c27,563$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.35787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3578…d9febacked Yes4c26,735$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062140%0 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c26,669$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c25,358$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.45765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc049…7a80backed Yes3c25,229$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.04520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2da…64f7backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c1f…448fbacked Yes4c24,481$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes2c24,337$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.583231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dfd…8775backed Yes1c24,008$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb7…f69ebacked Yes1c23,996$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c23,446$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.031428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes3c23,011$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.293915.4%6 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cdf…a31bbacked Yes1c22,690$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4b…bb26backed Yes3c21,888$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0766…1e44backed Yes4c21,410$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes3c20,492$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.222948.3%14 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+55.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb07…0d9fbacked Yes9c20,137$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf2…ca49backed Yes5c20,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd23…6d1bbacked Yes3c18,794$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c17,751$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.72414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x157c…2664backed Yes3c17,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a66…9bc0backed Yes6c16,772$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.4780%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…ae34backed Yes1c16,704$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.18540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+102.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccdb…eb60backed Yes1c16,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes5c16,149$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8302931%9 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df7…c1bdbacked Yes0c15,900$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes0c15,784$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.92812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-82.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b0…9aa3backed Yes0c15,440$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d43…ac2bbacked Yes3c15,147$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.4160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c14,714$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.935710.5%6 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x741a…2d91backed Yes3c14,324$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+127.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c14,057$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.58931.1%1 W · 92 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-94.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x140a…4d43backed Yes1c14,052$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5810…81bcbacked Yes1c14,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd4e…0a23backed Yes2c13,437$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b0…2de4backed Yes1c13,234$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c12,894$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.481816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+84.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd17…9bfbbacked Yes3c12,453$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.65616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c12,407$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.41419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes3c12,241$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.333813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbefc…51b7backed Yes3c12,239$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6b1…5bcbbacked Yes1c12,106$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf8…7651backed Yes3c11,800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.72520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c11,600$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a3…9e5cbacked Yes5c11,495$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4006…f9debacked Yes2c11,053$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5434…27edbacked Yes2c11,002$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa2…7ae2backed Yes0c10,750$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be9…9106backed Yes4c10,743$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-75.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed Yes2c10,698$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.17911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-77.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf37d…97eabacked Yes0c10,640$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b8…ad05backed Yes3c10,067$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.