TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,496 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes2c3,660$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.391657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,641$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.24928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes7c1,461$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.27226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,323$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.757135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes11c1,322$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.353912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6962…745ebacked No77c974.94$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.942642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad9…861cbacked Yes2c675.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11240%0 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd77e…83a4backed No72c610$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.81947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+60.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacdf…00fbbacked Yes34c594.27$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.751618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57dd…c41ebacked No63c545.69$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.463161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes5c527.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4710913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed Yes28c461$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.081637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No62c449.99$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17115643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked Yes8c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42f0…fc65backed Yes32c399.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.593020%6 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes6c300.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.194511.1%5 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes33c299.96$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9935355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb964…b248backed No78c297.6$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.242548%12 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes25c285.19$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4836750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe397…60b6backed Yes36c275.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006137.7%23 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes29c248.61$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.037243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes42c239.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No72c221.88$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3731344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf037…abf4backed Yes6c217.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No78c192.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.996246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62fa…f6fabacked No77c192.75$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.75887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick68cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes27c192.53$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0232345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4252…4a6ebacked No62c170.56$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.562475%18 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes22c159.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1912227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes18c159.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.313444.8%60 W · 74 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No66c155.18$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.999942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No73c152.54$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1650130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x168e…aa56backed Yes28c149$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.721315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-71.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes34c132.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No72c121.07$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3820749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4992…9cd4backed No75c116.1$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.666457.8%37 W · 27 L+7.7wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b39…4caabacked No67c112.93$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.273100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes16c109.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6458927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1647…4c4ebacked No70c106.08$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c105.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9639621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes32c100.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.319040%36 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1427…145abacked No78c100.11$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.871764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…1e59backed No70c99.55$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.552751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9022…db5bbacked Yes37c93.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.544257.1%24 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x416f…c768backed Yes36c91.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.121625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe99a…a923backed No77c88.6$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.951154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes34c88.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes18c87.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1613228%37 W · 95 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes14c83.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9113918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0202…55b0backed No75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e40…fc98backed No63c79.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.614440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes19c79.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.914136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34f5…e531backed Yes25c77.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.472948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes37c72.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.747052.9%37 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked No67c71.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4725518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x650f…a3e5backed No65c69.66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No67c67.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3129254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c63.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.471,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3113…7f06backed Yes41c60.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cad…a290backed No70c58.19$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.191957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b4a…7bd0backed Yes25c57.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.272835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8bd…463dbacked No64c55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.95238.5%20 W · 32 L-11.4wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-35.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xeb91…f1edbacked No60c50.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.21442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.516961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d55…04b8backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes35c47.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.941330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe268…61e0backed Yes45c46.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+88.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d2…0bc0backed No73c45.24$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.16136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb62c…bea3backed No67c39.79$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.13714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes41c33.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2362…6fd5backed No75c31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.753633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0255…60ebbacked No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e0…9358backed No67c29.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd268…5609backed No78c29.56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.562080%16 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61e7…da03backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedad…ed92backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8440…a714backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1301…2cf7backed No70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.431080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7933…92b0backed No76c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff2a…0771backed No78c19.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.