Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf023a3c661159ed3b103f885b94aee304ada050a54487a0d12440cf46188ed4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,623 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 73c | 8,044$5,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.64 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 14c | 7,473$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.24 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 13c | 5,306$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.28 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 51c | 4,768$2,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,331.76 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 1c | 4,356$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked No | 73c | 4,245$3,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,115.84 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…59cebacked Yes | 78c | 3,490$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.18 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +279.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 37c | 3,042$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.54 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 17c | 2,831$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.46 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…60b6backed Yes | 54c | 2,720$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.29 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed No | 9c | 2,640$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.39 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 34c | 2,578$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.97 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…2446backed No | 71c | 2,408$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 51c | 2,289$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.33 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 14c | 2,194$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.66 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 14c | 2,000$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.26 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae2…1032backed Yes | 79c | 1,903$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.94 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 14c | 1,881$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.76 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 1,880$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 11c | 1,862$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.15 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 29c | 1,805$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.02 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 13c | 1,743$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.31 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 18c | 1,578$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.64 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…aa56backed Yes | 80c | 1,519$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 1,490$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.51 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 15c | 1,482$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.97 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 17c | 1,425$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.88 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 42c | 1,276$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.35 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…7b0ebacked Yes | 61c | 1,204$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 30c | 1,174$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.78 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 13c | 1,144$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,133$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.73 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 1,130$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.71 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 13c | 1,064$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.92 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 20c | 1,030$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 18c | 1,023$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.59 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 79c | 1,018$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.24 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 17c | 999.98$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.2 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…17d2backed No | 18c | 999.81$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.97 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed No | 61c | 980.8$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.6 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 65c | 946.57$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.74 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 935.09$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.17 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…8b84backed No | 20c | 920.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…e179backed Yes | 75c | 864.51$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 21c | 864.41$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.65 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 9c | 838.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 23c | 817.77$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.14 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 24c | 806.9$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 18c | 805.8$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.32 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e2…5136backed Yes | 64c | 795.36$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.36 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…745ebacked No | 47c | 767.35$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.07 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 21c | 758$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.81 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 39c | 734.34$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.83 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 11c | 718.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 11c | 700$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…81c9backed Yes | 29c | 679.98$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 27c | 675.63$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…415cbacked Yes | 75c | 669.66$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 8c | 650$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…8100backed Yes | 26c | 645.8$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 20c | 624.28$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 602.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…6d43backed Yes | 34c | 593.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.29 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 13c | 519.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 29c | 511.28$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.29 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +25.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 16c | 506.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 29c | 503.47$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.43 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 497.72$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.55 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 15c | 496$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes | 11c | 486$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb488…96d0backed No | 38c | 476.89$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 465.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked No | 29c | 453.31$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 60c | 440.28$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.09 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 71c | 438.1$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 14c | 437.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 12c | 435.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 13c | 433.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…55cebacked No | 53c | 428.1$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.37 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked No | 17c | 422.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 15c | 420$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 20c | 409.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 10c | 399.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked No | 33c | 393.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 79c | 368.68$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…ad03backed No | 9c | 354.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed No | 11c | 348.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…fc65backed Yes | 24c | 339.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.64 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 16c | 297$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 6c | 280.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 258.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 16c | 256$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 13c | 252.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked No | 32c | 245.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 16c | 243$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.