TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef0e…06f9backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed Yes3c10,211$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.351741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb986…4b60backed Yes9c3,973$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.643951.3%20 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed Yes1c3,859$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes1c3,607$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7317414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c3,407$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.664928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes7c3,350$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.937226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc9d…d590backed Yes0c2,794$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a4…a4babacked Yes1c2,280$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c1,800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18570%0 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x565b…b19fbacked Yes1c1,703$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c1,585$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.013717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8702…3c0ebacked Yes16c1,502$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.68837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,329$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.45071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes8c1,319$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.933912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed Yes36c1,318$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f9…8a8bbacked Yes5c1,317$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf952…767dbacked Yes14c1,289$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-30.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9756backed Yes11c1,211$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.21119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.35per pick44cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes9c1,186$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.731657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ccb…fbbbbacked Yes4c1,162$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.63150%0 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked No72c1,077$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.561172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+95.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe336…6fcbbacked Yes39c1,071$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick23cpaid+24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Yes4c992.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.691625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c927.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.652282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes3c905.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9511320.4%23 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes14c863.93$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.55952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c741.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.667135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5770…4397backed Yes2c690.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.48520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-65.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes28c671$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.881526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No64c630$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.83844.7%17 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c608.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No74c602.34$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.1229254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes17c593.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acc…2865backed Yes30c583.34$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.741833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes2c580.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2415434.4%53 W · 101 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304736.2%17 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c12…0fd5backed Yes14c491.09$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes17c391.31$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.425339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes6c389.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0813918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x926a…3b1ebacked No64c378$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.081040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1b…6cc0backed Yes29c377.3$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.952343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+191%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes28c315$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.21533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes9c313.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2250130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked No64c310$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42f0…fc65backed Yes14c260$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.43020%6 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c213.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.792217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes14c213.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8930649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes20c207$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.494511.1%5 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4252…4a6ebacked No76c196.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.452475%18 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes17c174.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.564136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes8c172$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7610742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes18c166$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8835355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes15c157.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4123839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c147.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8958927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe56a…3b48backed Yes62c145.91$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes8c136.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7213228%37 W · 95 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…b48fbacked No75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-65.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes33c131.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes14c120$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.656336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xec8e…39b0backed Yes19c103.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…8f2cbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked Yes28c91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.482045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cad…a290backed No60c82.25$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.191957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No64c70.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.619942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x650f…a3e5backed No64c69.94$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f11…5ed0backed No74c67.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.796858.8%40 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c67.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9839621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xdccd…5507backed Yes30c66.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+52.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c59.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes33c57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.853745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No41c56$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.042438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No53c55.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8516961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes38c52.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No48c41.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4131344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5670…bd63backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes40c39.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0211452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No77c39.86$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0711554.8%63 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No62c39.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.948482.1%69 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No60c38.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.337268.1%49 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb867…6cafbacked No79c37.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8bd…463dbacked No43c23.68$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.55238.5%20 W · 32 L-11.4wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-35.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x2afe…e8a2backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.73467.6%23 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb754…d9a3backed No70c15.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14d9…5d56backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.22050%10 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+50.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.