Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29f736105a1cbdd7c63602a586320568b30f3ce91618fda2a55415fa46c12d6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,927 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed Yes | 0c | 18,195$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 8,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…1fb1backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 30c | 2,298$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.38 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,787$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,646$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.57 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 7c | 1,183$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,029$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed No | 67c | 751.84$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.25 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes | 33c | 725$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 33c | 661$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1647…4c4ebacked No | 76c | 642.55$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed No | 67c | 640$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 10c | 604.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 67c | 601$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 58c | 529.97$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.48 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 53c | 499.97$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.99 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked Yes | 11c | 475$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Yes | 8c | 462.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc3…b89ebacked Yes | 49c | 409.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Yes | 7c | 406.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf96…3263backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 11c | 377$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…b569backed Yes | 21c | 360.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 47c | 353.51$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.84 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…f6fabacked No | 77c | 346.07$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 344.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…ef61backed Yes | 13c | 313.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 9c | 272.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 65c | 260.94$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 61c | 246.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 7c | 243.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 8c | 209.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc8…ebbabacked Yes | 28c | 162.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 21c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…3b7dbacked Yes | 38c | 158.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 148.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 74c | 145.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 67c | 145.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 67c | 145$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…4a6ebacked No | 73c | 137.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 137$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 67c | 135$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b39…4caabacked No | 67c | 130.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 55c | 129.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 29c | 127.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…1e59backed No | 70c | 109.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc692…dfa6backed No | 47c | 107.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…5dbebacked No | 47c | 107.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…ca64backed Yes | 32c | 103.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 58c | 103.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…8f2cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 96.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…23aebacked Yes | 21c | 91.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…afa0backed Yes | 26c | 82.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed No | 45c | 82.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…23bebacked Yes | 38c | 79.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked No | 69c | 72.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…e179backed Yes | 47c | 71.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…5ed0backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…a290backed No | 60c | 68.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 26c | 66.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…8506backed Yes | 58c | 60.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 58.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…287dbacked No | 70c | 56.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 55.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 67c | 55.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…f933backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…89b6backed No | 70c | 45.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…04b8backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked Yes | 51c | 38.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -68%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x668a…04bbbacked No | 45c | 33.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 41c | 32.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d4…7b32backed Yes | 49c | 32.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…1453backed No | 71c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 59c | 26.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 71c | 24.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 72c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -11.4wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.