TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,342,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,288,307

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,342,896 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,094 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b4b…541bbacked No77c46,993$36,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,704.611926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-62.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No60c36,737$22,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,695.8527643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes31c31,408$9,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,805.5342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7881…f022backed Yes48c27,758$13,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,371.55922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No49c22,441$10,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,529.959154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No58c21,520$12,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,945.2219930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No65c21,223$13,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,417.3419648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes31c20,320$6,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,338.4436750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No57c19,800$11,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,603.228734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3daf…b0debacked Yes50c18,137$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,1001631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes29c17,932$5,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,241.9635819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes36c16,829$6,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,090.4389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x718e…3ef9backed Yes48c15,519$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,399.582619.2%5 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Yes33c15,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes19c13,874$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,691.21779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes45c13,635$6,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,124.9822227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes25c13,475$3,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,32514227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe248…0737backed No75c13,413$10,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,327.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes1c13,213$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e5e…bf98backed Yes22c11,996$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.641323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d99…4ca3backed No72c11,451$8,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,212.162245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No75c11,278$8,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,861.7728750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes4c10,800$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.83616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4002268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No79c9,698$7,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,074.535347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No61c9,571$5,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,758.4835631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes19c8,666$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.197027.1%19 W · 51 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6eb…88a8backed Yes52c8,476$4,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,407.661346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc747…de65backed Yes46c7,767$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,569.841838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x274c…da86backed Yes45c7,592$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,400540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No70c7,459$5,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.1631241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1208…d5fdbacked Yes44c7,431$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,273.9970%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfbc…8323backed Yes42c7,175$3,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,022.731520%3 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No59c7,091$4,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,911.8216041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes29c6,710$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.953935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No69c6,506$4,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.0722529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3801…cbe8backed Yes37c6,371$2,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,357.431275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc649…2425backed Yes40c6,343$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.42025%5 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No60c6,300$3,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,494.9615234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes52c6,284$3,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,275.3614036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes5c6,198$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.29400%0 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef5f…e090backed Yes36c6,142$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2006041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No63c6,039$3,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,258.42445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3968…2b0fbacked No62c6,032$3,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,276.532142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc902…cd14backed Yes33c5,299$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.944148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No66c5,201$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.2313950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4498…078dbacked Yes34c5,192$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,755.48224.5%1 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick21cpaid-91.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbc5…9c30backed Yes30c5,003$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+14.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcfe0…b492backed Yes3c4,828$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-85.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No60c4,820$2,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.287644.7%34 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes42c4,777$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.3742738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes11c4,660$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.418338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No70c4,647$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.3321531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked No71c4,395$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.188515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes33c4,379$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.8945843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes26c4,347$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13015629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No62c4,266$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.2416061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed No52c4,215$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.576056.7%34 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes5c4,212$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.7310313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d7…538abacked Yes27c4,058$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.431827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb48b…04ebbacked No60c3,932$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.698357.8%48 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No70c3,800$2,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1245431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes27c3,714$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.184953.1%26 W · 23 L+9.2wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+82.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes2c3,700$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.11837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No68c3,658$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.4834143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes48c3,567$1,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.987946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa91e…4e7fbacked Yes7c3,512$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No70c3,475$2,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.945623.2%13 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e45…644cbacked Yes29c3,448$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4122…9251backed Yes5c3,446$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes32c3,434$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1003315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d98…c8ddbacked Yes26c3,432$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No65c3,417$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.946558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No58c3,159$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.6122846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7cc7…4572backed Yes28c3,127$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8782128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-49.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes11c3,126$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.5736626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes8c3,027$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251392.6%1 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick12cpaid-96.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16d7…7d8fbacked Yes29c3,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…0a88backed Yes37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.99825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes55c3,000$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.9126429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9612…205abacked Yes10c2,990$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2993033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes40c2,961$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.0516553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes36c2,927$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.623839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes5c2,900$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.26943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabdb…73dabacked Yes9c2,897$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.154129.3%12 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+99%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b3e…65e4backed Yes35c2,889$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…a8c0backed Yes36c2,846$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.961241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x970a…9dc8backed Yes40c2,825$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+73.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…fe65backed Yes19c2,798$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.831910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-71.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes45c2,791$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.814436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc63a…68dbbacked Yes39c2,585$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002528%7 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes12c2,569$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.431421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+125.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes33c2,555$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.351128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddf4…2680backed Yes51c2,530$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3002450%12 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0132…3257backed Yes59c2,523$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes9c2,501$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.375525.5%14 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-33.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No48c2,500$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.997252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4b4…7e1abacked Yes39c2,451$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-59.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes4c2,436$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.95434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef99…e6fdbacked Yes50c2,407$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.831040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+90.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.