Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c40ea75eecbd88998a0c145a1a59aa407edee40586e4c0f131acabf9de6ca1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,342,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,288,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,342,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,094 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 77c | 46,993$36,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,704.61 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 60c | 36,737$22,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,695.85 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 31c | 31,408$9,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,805.53 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…f022backed Yes | 48c | 27,758$13,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,371.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 49c | 22,441$10,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,529.95 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 58c | 21,520$12,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,945.22 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 65c | 21,223$13,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,417.34 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 31c | 20,320$6,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,338.44 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 57c | 19,800$11,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,603.2 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…b0debacked Yes | 50c | 18,137$9,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 17,932$5,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,241.96 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 16,829$6,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,090.43 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 48c | 15,519$7,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,399.58 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 33c | 15,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 19c | 13,874$2,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,691.21 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 45c | 13,635$6,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,124.98 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 25c | 13,475$3,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,325 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…0737backed No | 75c | 13,413$10,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,327.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 1c | 13,213$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…bf98backed Yes | 22c | 11,996$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.64 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…4ca3backed No | 72c | 11,451$8,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.16 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 75c | 11,278$8,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.77 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 4c | 10,800$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 76c | 10,000$7,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 79c | 9,698$7,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.5 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 61c | 9,571$5,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,758.48 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 19c | 8,666$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.19 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…88a8backed Yes | 52c | 8,476$4,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,407.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…de65backed Yes | 46c | 7,767$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,569.84 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…da86backed Yes | 45c | 7,592$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 70c | 7,459$5,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246.16 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…d5fdbacked Yes | 44c | 7,431$3,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,273.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…8323backed Yes | 42c | 7,175$3,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,022.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 59c | 7,091$4,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,911.82 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes | 29c | 6,710$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.95 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 69c | 6,506$4,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.07 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…cbe8backed Yes | 37c | 6,371$2,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.43 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…2425backed Yes | 40c | 6,343$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 60c | 6,300$3,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.96 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 52c | 6,284$3,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,275.36 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 5c | 6,198$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.29 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…e090backed Yes | 36c | 6,142$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 63c | 6,039$3,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,258.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…2b0fbacked No | 62c | 6,032$3,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.53 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed Yes | 33c | 5,299$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.94 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 66c | 5,201$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.23 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…078dbacked Yes | 34c | 5,192$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.48 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…9c30backed Yes | 30c | 5,003$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…b492backed Yes | 3c | 4,828$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 60c | 4,820$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.28 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 42c | 4,777$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.37 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 11c | 4,660$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.4 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 70c | 4,647$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.33 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 71c | 4,395$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.18 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 33c | 4,379$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.89 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 26c | 4,347$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 62c | 4,266$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.24 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 52c | 4,215$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.57 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 5c | 4,212$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.73 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…538abacked Yes | 27c | 4,058$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 60c | 3,932$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.69 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 70c | 3,800$2,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 27c | 3,714$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.18 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 2c | 3,700$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 68c | 3,658$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.48 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 48c | 3,567$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.98 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…4e7fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,512$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 70c | 3,475$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.94 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e45…644cbacked Yes | 29c | 3,448$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…9251backed Yes | 5c | 3,446$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 32c | 3,434$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…c8ddbacked Yes | 26c | 3,432$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 65c | 3,417$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.94 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 58c | 3,159$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.61 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…4572backed Yes | 28c | 3,127$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 3,126$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.57 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes | 8c | 3,027$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -96.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…7d8fbacked Yes | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…0a88backed Yes | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 55c | 3,000$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.91 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked Yes | 10c | 2,990$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 40c | 2,961$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.05 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 36c | 2,927$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.6 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 5c | 2,900$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…73dabacked Yes | 9c | 2,897$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.15 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…65e4backed Yes | 35c | 2,889$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…a8c0backed Yes | 36c | 2,846$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970a…9dc8backed Yes | 40c | 2,825$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…fe65backed Yes | 19c | 2,798$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.83 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 45c | 2,791$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.81 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…68dbbacked Yes | 39c | 2,585$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,569$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.43 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 33c | 2,555$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.35 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Yes | 51c | 2,530$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0132…3257backed Yes | 59c | 2,523$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 9c | 2,501$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.37 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 48c | 2,500$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.99 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b4…7e1abacked Yes | 39c | 2,451$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes | 4c | 2,436$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef99…e6fdbacked Yes | 50c | 2,407$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Germany by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike India in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Iraq in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Oman again in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Qatar in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Syria in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey in March?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike UAE in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen in March?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.