TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Syria in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$370,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$355,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,376 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91dd…6780backed Yes8c6,561$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.061330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes7c3,345$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes4c3,341$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-60.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc2…3e11backed Yes4c3,326$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes9c3,206$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.674134.1%14 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes14c3,112$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.79779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9da…1365backed Yes4c2,547$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1071…e5f7backed Yes4c2,295$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff8…ff7ebacked Yes4c2,262$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3ca…238cbacked Yes3c2,174$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbe6…a04fbacked Yes4c2,147$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200e…f772backed Yes3c2,054$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8a…12e0backed Yes4c2,053$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98c…f628backed Yes3c1,970$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb53c…4220backed Yes4c1,958$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd69b…4fcfbacked Yes3c1,922$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7fd…79a1backed Yes3c1,822$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87db…c671backed Yes4c1,806$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e9…f064backed Yes3c1,796$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddb…ec7abacked Yes4c1,787$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a4…b59cbacked Yes3c1,751$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa537…c26abacked Yes4c1,725$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47fd…9611backed Yes3c1,710$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb64b…a88cbacked Yes4c1,706$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60bc…2900backed Yes3c1,705$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570d…7acbbacked Yes3c1,671$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabcd…db7ebacked Yes4c1,652$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b8…51f2backed Yes4c1,610$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b97…4292backed Yes3c1,606$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes7c1,546$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a6…56b7backed Yes3c1,541$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a0…c022backed Yes4c1,508$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf820…eaa3backed Yes5c1,497$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1584…686abacked Yes3c1,481$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f1…d931backed Yes4c1,464$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3e…b02dbacked Yes4c1,451$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b3…fb78backed Yes4c1,449$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No78c1,444$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.620749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe166…2d8fbacked No69c1,441$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.921553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09e0…8f41backed Yes5c1,424$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c5…1b0ebacked Yes4c1,418$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x999a…15c6backed Yes4c1,372$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes31c1,338$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.781020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes6c1,330$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.961199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9dd…8e7cbacked Yes3c1,280$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…6fb9backed Yes4c1,274$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07da…0633backed Yes4c1,267$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No51c1,240$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.634242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a7…6a84backed Yes5c1,213$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes19c1,201$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.214227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee4b…02c1backed Yes3c1,163$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd6…7089backed Yes5c1,120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x157d…62cfbacked Yes5c1,110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…1af1backed Yes5c1,095$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f08…e57dbacked Yes3c1,075$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes11c1,066$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010227.5%28 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc5…59dbbacked Yes3c1,063$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaec…e829backed Yes3c1,051$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b1…a596backed Yes3c1,045$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b5…e825backed Yes3c1,018$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes13c1,000$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.17400%0 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a4…ee62backed Yes3c997$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes13c992$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.961442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes34c989.02$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.98749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb3…e367backed Yes3c984$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb211…2e2ebacked Yes5c964$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d4…0f99backed Yes3c955$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabdb…73dabacked Yes18c947.92$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.144129.3%12 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+99%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes35c942.97$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.4835355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x96aa…0547backed Yes5c941$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e9…8d47backed Yes3c940$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21cd…802fbacked Yes3c939$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d9b…2e38backed Yes3c938$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133f…738ebacked Yes3c926$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb374…13b4backed Yes4c914$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes55c911.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006832.4%22 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa388…08eabacked Yes3c908$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c4…daf1backed Yes3c892$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcab1…f8c0backed Yes4c872$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa709…992abacked Yes5c867$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes26c862.63$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.4942818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e79…c0f1backed Yes5c857$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f7b…78b0backed Yes3c849$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecea…7ac0backed Yes3c842$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ae6…6fefbacked Yes3c835$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb8…d688backed Yes3c810$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124e…e3cbbacked Yes3c810$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba18…c855backed Yes3c810$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e2…7786backed Yes3c802$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0148…3f66backed Yes3c795$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e0…37b3backed Yes3c793$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb587…1f07backed Yes3c787$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes18c786.07$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.410226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f90…9e7bbacked Yes3c781$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No64c781$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.1610354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes36c768.68$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.823315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39ff…0463backed Yes3c766$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3158…4bafbacked Yes3c760$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5985…a7e6backed Yes3c752$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2b…98b6backed Yes3c750$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.