TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,574 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb986…4b60backed Yes0c7,644$35 inLost-$353951.3%20 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x746f…566dbacked Yes9c2,521$221 inLost-$220.973748.6%18 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes8c1,875$144 inLost-$144.343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91dd…6780backed Yes11c1,837$200 inLost-$2001330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7524…de23backed Yes2c1,313$20 inLost-$201816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes15c921.96$135 inLost-$134.87400%0 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7336…94b8backed Yes2c918.86$20 inLost-$201729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes10c812.81$77 inLost-$77.4936626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes5c796.5$42 inLost-$42.3779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes9c241$23 inLost-$22.6142120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed Yes5c239.55$11 inLost-$11.34126.8%11 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561e…2093backed Yes14c200$28 inLost-$2870%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb90…c9a0backed Yes8c170$14 inLost-$141414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes23c60$14 inLost-$142133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No72c22.86$16 inWon+$6.450130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.