Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66cd4dcc3ebb23fa6b8f89da3573dc4f02be56ac3a690e001880b435b3ab0feb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $375,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,989 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x272f…164fbacked No | 0c | 89,972$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +279.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed No | 0c | 46,478$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked No | 0c | 27,830$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 75c | 10,020$7,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.17 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…314dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked No | 1c | 8,772$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…72cabacked No | 25c | 7,140$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0e…9818backed No | 23c | 3,821$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +118%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…069fbacked Yes | 80c | 3,634$2,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 49c | 3,304$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.25 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 45c | 3,100$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.15 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 53c | 2,715$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.24 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed No | 2c | 2,534$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 57c | 2,522$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.41 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…c744backed No | 54c | 2,338$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.13 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 22c | 2,299$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.55 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 1c | 2,280$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988f…f304backed Yes | 13c | 1,843$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…fe5cbacked No | 1c | 1,833$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 10c | 1,788$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.51 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 13c | 1,672$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.79 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed No | 15c | 1,649$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.23 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 45c | 1,601$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.84 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,522$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +555.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…9eebbacked Yes | 10c | 1,490$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +421%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 80c | 1,473$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.31 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 16c | 1,366$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.93 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed No | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,265$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.15 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 40c | 1,223$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.76 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8801…f667backed No | 32c | 1,150$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked No | 17c | 1,110$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a81…a925backed No | 8c | 1,102$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 77c | 1,092$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.68 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0e…9b3bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,071$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.52 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 942$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed Yes | 49c | 913.3$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 4c | 900$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 51c | 885.73$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.79 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 6c | 850$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 11c | 831.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.83 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e8…b293backed No | 25c | 814.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed No | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 78c | 794.16$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.78 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked No | 2c | 759.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…7756backed Yes | 54c | 746.36$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.98 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed No | 2c | 742.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 77c | 722.76$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.6 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 10c | 694.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.76 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…90eabacked Yes | 15c | 680.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…459fbacked No | 24c | 655.3$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 9c | 588.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 585.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.46 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…102abacked No | 17c | 580.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…de5ebacked No | 72c | 561.68$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.49 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x940a…97afbacked No | 18c | 556.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9990…c1e2backed Yes | 8c | 532.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +195.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 24c | 522$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.76 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 76c | 522$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 515.42$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.19 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 41c | 505$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +149%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 59c | 505$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 30c | 500$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f65…4875backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 10c | 500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 49c | 495.05$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.05 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked No | 24c | 462$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…10e2backed Yes | 48c | 413.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.46 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 39c | 407.86$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.42 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 49c | 406.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.47 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9575…0386backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +769.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 79c | 394.68$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.13 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…729cbacked Yes | 16c | 387.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 8cpaid | +193.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 13c | 386$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…2343backed No | 33c | 385.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…184fbacked No | 17c | 372.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked No | 5c | 369.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…30a7backed No | 7c | 367.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 22c | 365.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de2…0e4cbacked Yes | 13c | 361.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +276.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 23c | 357.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…1038backed No | 28c | 351.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 41c | 350.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.97 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 22c | 350$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 348.3$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.26 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…acefbacked No | 20c | 342$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 327.64$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 327.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.21 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 6c | 322.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.46 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…0730backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 48c | 281.11$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.11 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 11c | 279$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.31 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 7c | 271.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.5 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…e2b0backed No | 11c | 264.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320d…a934backed No | 23c | 261.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +592.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 24c | 256.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.94 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike India in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Iraq in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Oman again in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Qatar in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Syria in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey in March?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike UAE in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen in March?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.