TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3f65…4875

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tennis, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 54 out of 100; worst Premier League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kigali 2: Mathys Erhard vs Andrej Martinbacked Mathys Erhard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
BNP Paribas Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Gabriel Diallo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.57
BNP Paribas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+66.8%+$197.17
BNP Paribas Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Denis Shapovalov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.4
BNP Paribas Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Jakub Mensikbacked Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$144.9
BNP Paribas Open: Ben Shelton vs Learner Tienbacked Learner Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+86.1%+$95.36
Thionville: Sebastian Ofner vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaerbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.05
BNP Paribas Open: Ugo Humbert vs Alex Michelsenbacked Ugo Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$148
BNP Paribas Open: Sebastian Baez vs Jiri Leheckabacked Sebastian Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+137.5%+$356.1
BNP Paribas Open: Sebastian Korda vs Alex de Minaurbacked Alex de Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+127.7%+$36.2
BNP Paribas Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Luciano Darderibacked Luciano Darderi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$386
BNP Paribas Open: Andrey Rublev vs Gabriel Diallobacked Gabriel Diallo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+566.7%+$413.67
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Kamil Majchrzakbacked Kamil Majchrzak · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$29
BNP Paribas Open: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+183.8%+$330.56
BNP Paribas Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Corentin Moutetbacked Corentin Moutet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$173
Thionville: Hugo Gaston vs Sebastian Ofnerbacked Sebastian Ofner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+51.5%+$68
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+90.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$202
Will the San Antonio Spurs finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Hornets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+177.1%+$390.3
Bulls vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+89.5%+$110.55
Rockets vs. Spursbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$184
Wizards vs. Pelicansbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$237.81
Pistons vs. Heatbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.4
Knicks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+138.7%+$395.26
Celtics vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.78
Warriors vs. Thunderbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Clippers vs. Grizzliesbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$531Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+72.4%+$384.62
Jazz vs. Bucksbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Nets vs. Pistonsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+1,883.8%+$712.66
76ers vs. Hawksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$370.27
Magic vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$171.05
All 15 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+316.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$68
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$271.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. BYU Cougarsbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.34
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.