Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a26217da9d13cc7d95737b661622b13eb857c668cde0bda6ed3ffef0ac981e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 5c | 4,559$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.78 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 7c | 2,659$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.34 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…0b26backed No | 4c | 2,601$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 76c | 1,456$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.88 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 1,412$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…adf7backed No | 9c | 1,300$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed No | 8c | 1,176$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 14c | 1,016$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.36 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 78c | 976.68$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.78 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed Yes | 75c | 843.48$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.94 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fd…5324backed Yes | 56c | 842.46$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…7756backed Yes | 70c | 650$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f65…4875backed No | 31c | 635.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 16c | 565$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0651…c690backed Yes | 78c | 514.44$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefcf…e2febacked Yes | 76c | 488.81$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…b131backed No | 19c | 483.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 18c | 456.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed No | 28c | 399.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 77c | 350.86$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 44c | 339.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.94 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 314.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 27c | 272.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 259.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…dc0abacked No | 14c | 216.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 11c | 185.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 13c | 175.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…21d7backed Yes | 40c | 159.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 46c | 155.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 28c | 141.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc39f…136abacked No | 37c | 135.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…72acbacked Yes | 59c | 135.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43c…c551backed Yes | 61c | 132$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 24c | 130.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 64c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 44c | 127.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 115.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 58c | 110.87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed No | 47c | 107.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…8332backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 97.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 14c | 92.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 63c | 84.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…3528backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2665…a06cbacked No | 26c | 77.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 78c | 73.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…5dbebacked Yes | 58c | 68.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…d815backed Yes | 72c | 64.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b0…96cfbacked No | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 44c | 62.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…059dbacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…355cbacked Yes | 77c | 52.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4029…0d95backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 24c | 46.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…db39backed Yes | 74c | 40.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be9…7f8cbacked Yes | 49c | 38.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 46c | 36.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 31c | 36.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc692…dfa6backed Yes | 59c | 31.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d98…a392backed No | 56c | 27.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed No | 72c | 22.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…40f4backed Yes | 72c | 20.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…d209backed Yes | 72c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.