Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc88d52bd061e7edd62b50e7910773e7b1ed6fe8443169fe1dec843708f3e12d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,861 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x276e…ac88backed No | 10c | 1,004$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 863.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 7c | 535.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 8c | 503.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 20c | 475$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed No | 20c | 465$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 80c | 465$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…57e8backed Yes | 80c | 462$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 80c | 458$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…589ebacked No | 20c | 445$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 5c | 441.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked No | 11c | 432$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked No | 20c | 374$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked No | 20c | 369$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed Yes | 80c | 369$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked Yes | 80c | 365$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed No | 20c | 341$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 325.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…0720backed No | 7c | 287.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked No | 11c | 267.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 11c | 253$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973f…0883backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 11c | 245$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked No | 11c | 224$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 9c | 217$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 210.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed No | 12c | 163.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…e3cebacked No | 10c | 150.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 115.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9523…7d6abacked No | 12c | 99.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6f…17adbacked No | 11c | 92.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…58f1backed No | 22c | 79.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee36…bebebacked No | 25c | 40.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 9, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.