Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2084e5bc6287d989da5ceb611982bf6bb7dad6547f1e102ca7bfdec7869ca147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,189 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 20c | 1,200$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 696.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked No | 10c | 499.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…7889backed No | 3c | 480.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 9c | 418.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 7c | 329.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed No | 9c | 328.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…21d7backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 6c | 207.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…8332backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 164.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 11c | 103.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 75c | 31.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 8, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.