TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Spurs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Rockets, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,424,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,424,335 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,604 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Rockets33c154,368$50,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,941.5743542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a57…2afabacked Rockets34c124,287$41,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,964.658944.9%40 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa491…3177backed Spurs66c100,521$66,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,177.245959.3%35 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Spurs66c75,000$49,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,197.5723257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Spurs67c74,627$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,626.8736549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Rockets34c73,529$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Rockets15c58,301$8,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,739.2123147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Spurs67c57,849$38,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,221.5751354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Rockets34c49,249$16,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,728.931,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9b…945abacked Spurs67c38,438$25,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,684.484151.2%21 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Rockets24c36,776$8,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,915.7711737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs69c32,642$22,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,145.522,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x152f…08b7backed Rockets0c32,360$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.362669.2%18 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea21…99ddbacked Spurs70c29,466$20,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,874.557656.6%43 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Rockets33c24,505$8,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,086.551,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Spurs67c23,994$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,993.7952760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Rockets34c23,701$8,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,055.221,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Rockets2c22,600$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4573179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Spurs67c22,388$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,388.134143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Rockets33c20,892$6,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,894.259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Rockets12c20,662$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.3866248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae5…ead2backed Spurs67c17,910$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,910.455248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Spurs67c17,000$11,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,610.123148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets25c15,914$3,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,923.382,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Rockets34c15,877$5,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,395.199343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Rockets9c15,000$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.8595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5744…7e78backed Spurs67c14,925$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,925.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Spurs68c14,448$9,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,623.2414856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Rockets7c12,985$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.411428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Spurs64c11,976$7,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,277.1937557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rockets23c10,302$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.151,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Spurs69c10,301$7,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,142.2812951.9%67 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Rockets2c10,000$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.141,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Rockets30c9,785$2,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,952.9538434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Spurs67c9,686$6,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,196.432039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6847…4f83backed Rockets23c9,683$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.571450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rockets5c8,974$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.111,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Rockets14c8,894$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.6219033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3111backed Rockets34c8,816$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9979540%38 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7723…abedbacked Spurs67c8,581$5,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,831.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Rockets34c8,500$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.9635547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Rockets34c8,459$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.1261851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs67c8,292$5,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,757.484,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Rockets1c8,156$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.445213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Spurs66c8,000$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7206943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ceb…7dfbbacked Rockets34c8,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.982646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs79c7,848$6,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.828,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Spurs70c7,700$5,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,321.5326444.7%118 W · 146 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Rockets34c7,500$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.9974748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Rockets34c7,354$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5009531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Rockets23c7,200$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.9880737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Spurs79c6,942$5,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.975,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Spurs70c6,700$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.0426353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Spurs65c6,443$4,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.7944052.5%231 W · 209 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x668f…4c0fbacked Spurs67c6,400$4,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1126765.7%44 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d39…a4fbbacked Rockets3c6,379$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5890%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Spurs69c6,027$4,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,851.061369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+121%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Rockets9c5,986$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.331,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs67c5,970$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.241,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b77…ee2cbacked Spurs67c5,970$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.233070%21 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Rockets34c5,885$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.589336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs66c5,827$3,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.134,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea7b…a34bbacked Spurs67c5,821$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.92958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01f5…5cfbbacked Rockets35c5,742$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00016421.3%35 W · 129 L-10.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7382…06edbacked Rockets33c5,600$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-78.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Spurs78c5,555$4,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.2176850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Rockets3c5,408$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17067911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Spurs65c5,079$3,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.0429250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Rockets24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20021440.7%87 W · 127 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb240…12bfbacked Rockets1c4,834$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297848.7%38 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Rockets33c4,807$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.4441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46bc…2d14backed Rockets25c4,800$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.7818931.2%59 W · 130 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Rockets0c4,765$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1426824.6%66 W · 202 L-14.9wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rockets33c4,606$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.532,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Rockets34c4,413$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50024151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Rockets1c4,302$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.47211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae3…d852backed Spurs66c4,001$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Rockets33c4,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3201,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ec…2892backed Spurs74c3,937$2,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.922623.1%6 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-62%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9f50…3191backed Spurs66c3,805$2,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2947865.4%51 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Spurs79c3,800$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.4542335.9%152 W · 271 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Rockets19c3,642$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.0729547.5%140 W · 155 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc740…522fbacked Rockets34c3,633$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2354751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Spurs66c3,610$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.5335650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7a…a1f2backed Spurs66c3,309$2,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.555570.9%39 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Spurs67c3,250$2,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.5517356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs76c3,231$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.493,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Rockets36c3,100$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1169629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476d…67c6backed Rockets3c3,080$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.392035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Rockets34c3,050$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.661,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Spurs72c3,047$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.5316162.7%101 W · 60 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Spurs66c3,030$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.4217246.5%80 W · 92 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1f…2d9fbacked Spurs67c3,023$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.484667.4%31 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Rockets12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Spurs66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.28953.9%48 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Rockets7c3,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec87…97c1backed Rockets33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.991154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Rockets0c2,997$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.678783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8521…df10backed Rockets25c2,940$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74518534.1%63 W · 122 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20cf…91dbbacked Spurs66c2,750$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.064768.1%32 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.