NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9854fce97ae0b61f325a14e3f302d32eb883f0f0a0d4a59c99afd9d674083623
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,295 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets | 45c | 1,400$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.26 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Spurs | 55c | 1,324$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.64 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 45c | 1,259$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 44c | 709.38$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets | 44c | 680.56$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.45 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Spurs | 55c | 454$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Spurs | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Rockets | 46c | 400.55$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.25 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…d212backed Rockets | 52c | 384.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…adafbacked Spurs | 56c | 357.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs | 56c | 316.68$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Rockets | 46c | 313.04$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Spurs | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc59…df13backed Rockets | 45c | 217.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rockets | 49c | 202.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Spurs | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 53c | 192.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs | 50c | 188$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets | 44c | 182.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…48e3backed Spurs | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 155 | 47.1%73 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Rockets | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets | 45c | 152.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Spurs | 54c | 149.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 253 | 40.3%102 W · 151 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Spurs | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rockets | 46c | 121.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Rockets | 47c | 108.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Spurs | 53c | 106.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Spurs | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Spurs | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Spurs | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Spurs | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Rockets | 45c | 94.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 178 | 44.4%79 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 46c | 91.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…5846backed Spurs | 56c | 91.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Rockets | 45c | 79.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…7b9ebacked Rockets | 45c | 75.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 108 | 35.2%38 W · 70 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Spurs | 55c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…6eedbacked Rockets | 47c | 63.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Spurs | 56c | 62.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Spurs | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Spurs | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…7d08backed Spurs | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…8de0backed Spurs | 56c | 57.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Spurs | 56c | 56.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Spurs | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Spurs | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Spurs | 56c | 38.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Rockets | 45c | 38.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Spurs | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db5…8a96backed Spurs | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Spurs | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Spurs | 56c | 33.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca8…d137backed Rockets | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Rockets | 48c | 30.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Rockets | 49c | 30.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Spurs | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Spurs | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Rockets | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Spurs | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -17.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Spurs | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)this page
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Rockets vs. SpursSpurs won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.