NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bb52578af046d51d6b2ba3926d7dc49da8ecd99188d847e6402c516c5a194e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,390 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 46c | 907.89$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.91 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 50c | 750$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 50c | 570$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…ee95backed Yes | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 54c | 453.76$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.43 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 45c | 324.46$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.45 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…0ddbbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…976fbacked Yes | 51c | 193.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked No | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 67c | 156$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 49c | 149.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 53c | 69.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 51c | 59.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044d…e6f7backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfd…d788backed Yes | 53c | 31.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 29.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5this page
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Rockets vs. SpursSpurs won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.