TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Jordan in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,800 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc412…592dbacked No4c2,347$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.333441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes75c2,269$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.5727643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No19c1,551$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.774242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed No39c1,159$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4504238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No18c1,022$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5942818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked Yes74c966.18$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.156066.7%40 W · 20 L+7.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xddf7…5122backed Yes65c778$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b9…a226backed No21c757.84$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.45540%22 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes64c719$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.3335355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3de5…00ccbacked No18c678.1$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No23c650$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa79e…4229backed Yes80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252119%4 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-69.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed No49c618.42$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003860.5%23 W · 15 L+6.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+51.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb229…8e56backed No27c606.39$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.762941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No19c570.34$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.31779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes76c544.87$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3732345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No19c502.17$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4145843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4613…8c44backed No33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43bf…c53abacked Yes76c414.62$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.896726.9%18 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed No33c400$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.394738.3%18 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes75c398.59$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5934440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes72c373.69$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1118338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x611f…1f84backed Yes67c356$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.481163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick39cpaid+151%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed No33c356$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.481442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffde…219dbacked No3c310$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e70…caccbacked No33c305.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac5c…7b5bbacked No34c291.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-74%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No13c282.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5413918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcda6…3f07backed No9c282.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.213237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…2867backed No35c281$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.35540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8b…1614backed Yes77c272.56$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.563638.9%14 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed No35c262$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.37per pick49cpaid-59.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes72c260.88$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6124839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b8…2992backed Yes64c257.21$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.591346.2%6 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick21cpaid+227.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No21c255.87$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed Yes68c250$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.925151%26 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d9…22e4backed Yes65c250$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No9c249.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.58144.4%36 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b6…dfc1backed No20c247.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb6…d56ebacked No12c246.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0848…ffbebacked No9c236.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.845942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed No35c235$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.251442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No9c230.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.097135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No18c226.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8850130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc0…ee45backed No38c222.81$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No23c222.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.081,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No34c200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.829234.8%32 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ae2…1032backed No29c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.42334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9620749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes65c199.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7017934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No22c197.12$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.329739.2%38 W · 59 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No20c194.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9826138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c193.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes68c191.17$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1734234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes34c185.43$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3930649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes79c180.82$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.292850%14 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes63c172.7$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed Yes30c163.54$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.1420243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa677…9beabacked No26c161.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.541546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No20c160.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0713228%37 W · 95 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30de…1f9dbacked Yes80c156.44$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.441752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes66c150.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9221034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes40c149.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906437.5%24 W · 40 L+8.3wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed No10c149.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155463%34 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3801…cbe8backed Yes64c146.18$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.621275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes64c137.59$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2811357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf762…a8e6backed No9c133.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2490%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes75c130.07$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.369040%36 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2542329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9619…fb18backed No29c121.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No20c118.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5831728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No25c116.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9911554.8%63 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe699…8790backed No29c113.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes67c111.88$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes74c108.02$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6216173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes63c104$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4836227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c35…afa8backed Yes76c102.64$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.263751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a7…34d6backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ee…4b33backed No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112450%12 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51d…1578backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123050%15 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36a7…1aeabacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x210a…4661backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810446.2%48 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3821531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed No20c98.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208457.1%48 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked No49c94.48$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No31c89.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55a9…87cebacked Yes74c86.6$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.523132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No20c82.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6412023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes75c80.15$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No16c79.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8619641.8%82 W · 114 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe329…4adbbacked Yes63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x123a…e878backed No31c76.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d3…6c8abacked No17c74.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Yes70c73.53$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.228482.1%69 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7ff7…d747backed No35c73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.421758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.