Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Jordan in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27ade12e788507af8c7723933e38c79c97d2f687c9daa7eb6c9e6951786bf247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,800 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 4c | 2,347$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 75c | 2,269$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.57 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 19c | 1,551$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.77 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 39c | 1,159$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 18c | 1,022$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.59 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 74c | 966.18$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.15 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed Yes | 65c | 778$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed No | 21c | 757.84$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 64c | 719$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.33 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…00ccbacked No | 18c | 678.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 23c | 650$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed Yes | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 49c | 618.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…8e56backed No | 27c | 606.39$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 19c | 570.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 76c | 544.87$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.37 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 19c | 502.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4613…8c44backed No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 76c | 414.62$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 33c | 400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 75c | 398.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 72c | 373.69$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Yes | 67c | 356$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +151%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 33c | 356$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 3c | 310$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e70…caccbacked No | 33c | 305.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…7b5bbacked No | 34c | 291.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 13c | 282.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 9c | 282.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…2867backed No | 35c | 281$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 77c | 272.56$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed No | 35c | 262$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 72c | 260.88$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…2992backed Yes | 64c | 257.21$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 21cpaid | +227.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 255.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 68c | 250$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…22e4backed Yes | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No | 9c | 249.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…dfc1backed No | 20c | 247.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…d56ebacked No | 12c | 246.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 9c | 236.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 35c | 235$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 230.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 18c | 226.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…ee45backed No | 38c | 222.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 222.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 34c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae2…1032backed No | 29c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 22c | 197.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 20c | 194.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 193.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 68c | 191.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 34c | 185.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.39 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 79c | 180.82$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 63c | 172.7$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 30c | 163.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.14 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…9beabacked No | 26c | 161.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 20c | 160.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30de…1f9dbacked Yes | 80c | 156.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 66c | 150.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes | 40c | 149.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 10c | 149.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…cbe8backed Yes | 64c | 146.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 64c | 137.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…a8e6backed No | 9c | 133.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 75c | 130.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…fb18backed No | 29c | 121.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 20c | 118.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 25c | 116.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe699…8790backed No | 29c | 113.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 111.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 74c | 108.02$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 63c | 104$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…afa8backed Yes | 76c | 102.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…34d6backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36a7…1aeabacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…4661backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 20c | 98.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked No | 49c | 94.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 89.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…87cebacked Yes | 74c | 86.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 20c | 82.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 80.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 16c | 79.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…4adbbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x123a…e878backed No | 31c | 76.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…6c8abacked No | 17c | 74.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 70c | 73.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d747backed No | 35c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike India in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Iraq in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Oman again in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Qatar in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Syria in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey in March?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike UAE in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen in March?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.