TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,326

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,199 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfe0…b492backed Yes4c10,110$365 inLost-$364.76911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-85.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes2c3,079$69 inLost-$691488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes2c1,938$45 inLost-$45.06779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes3c1,772$50 inLost-$50248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes2c1,406$34 inLost-$33.987027.1%19 W · 51 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8095…0053backed Yes2c1,131$28 inLost-$27.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed Yes2c1,051$21 inLost-$21.234032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes1c952.49$10 inLost-$10434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes2c802.88$20 inLost-$202222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-60.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2fd…b9c8backed Yes2c754$18 inLost-$18.11225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a3…4aa9backed Yes2c598$14 inLost-$14.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes3c567.28$17 inLost-$17.17722.1%17 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c528$24 inLost-$24.4342120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes3c511.41$14 inLost-$13.594216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost-$10.7536035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No79c13.13$10 inWon+$2.8210341.7%43 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.