Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce5b0b659069f15e4a3a81d8a87b007a06a068641cdd8a2efb83334bb73caca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4366…f6b1backed Yes | 1c | 10,700$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052d…5882backed Yes | 1c | 10,700$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d7…1c0dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f5…17e3backed Yes | 5c | 2,840$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 957.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 4c | 817.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 720.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 5c | 583.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…9915backed Yes | 4c | 401.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 4c | 304.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 5c | 229.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 6c | 229.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 6c | 172.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?this page
- Will Iran strike Armenia by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike India in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Iraq in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Italy by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Oman again in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Qatar in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Syria in March?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey in March?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike UAE in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen in March?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.