Movies · resolved market
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a012f96f4026becbba855e0b9cf4bf159fa1021fd94e84b6715b0a4cff97b1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 29c | 9,370$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 61c | 7,411$4,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880.96 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 39c | 6,718$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,115.44 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 7c | 4,849$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 4c | 3,328$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 9c | 3,147$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.41 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 56c | 3,145$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.19 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 52c | 2,334$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.08 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 72c | 2,258$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 75c | 2,214$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 28c | 2,034$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.96 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 25c | 1,600$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.92 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 1,534$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…04c7backed No | 2c | 1,491$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked No | 77c | 1,137$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.01 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 38c | 980.71$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.1 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…456bbacked No | 27c | 905.07$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…bb47backed No | 60c | 652.8$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…fa6abacked No | 61c | 641.1$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eed…c3a5backed No | 60c | 609.12$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 3c | 574.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 23c | 541.87$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 28c | 511.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…0916backed No | 9c | 507.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.7 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 47c | 489.88$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.62 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 486.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 60c | 427.3$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…cd66backed Yes | 28c | 406.74$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 69c | 401.13$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.94 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 76c | 380$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 37c | 378.81$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.46 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…9d16backed No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 49c | 310.69$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 23c | 282.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed Yes | 10c | 278.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +99%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 24c | 277.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.55 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 275.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 274.94$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 46c | 261.93$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.59 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 45c | 245$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 63c | 244.17$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a23…bac3backed No | 12c | 232.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 37c | 224.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 10c | 200.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 19c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 68c | 199.68$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…aa37backed No | 14c | 198.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 68c | 198$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed Yes | 64c | 174.95$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 11c | 161.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 11c | 159.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 28c | 149.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x16e1…0fd5backed Yes | 70c | 137.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…62fcbacked Yes | 33c | 116.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 60c | 106.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 58c | 106.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 103$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 54c | 102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 42c | 97.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…50debacked Yes | 29c | 96.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 23c | 80.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked No | 13c | 79.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 77.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 68.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Yes | 59c | 66.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…1c5bbacked Yes | 65c | 50.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8d…9438backed Yes | 49c | 48.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef4…f1dcbacked No | 33c | 48.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 44.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2042…2f99backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…1241backed Yes | 62c | 30.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…fe95backed Yes | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 57c | 26.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 24.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed No | 51c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…03f7backed No | 62c | 20.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f3…be43backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?this page
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?No won
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?No won
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?No won
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 16m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.