TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arkansas Stateof Missouri State, Arkansas State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$531,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$545,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $531,811 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Arkansas State51c191,640$98,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,276.9293548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Missouri State48c124,303$59,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,665.232745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Missouri State48c63,164$30,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,318.563951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Missouri State50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00019362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f6…cf62backed Arkansas State50c47,100$23,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Arkansas State53c39,022$20,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,340.545745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Missouri State51c30,720$15,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,667.1611846.6%55 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Missouri State53c30,000$15,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,85039954.1%216 W · 183 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Missouri State48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60038546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Arkansas State49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,20027246%125 W · 147 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas State67c18,061$12,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,956.0858850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Arkansas State48c14,443$6,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,502.31353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Arkansas State52c14,295$7,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,861.592138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Missouri State47c13,381$6,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,289.073540%14 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd13…ed6fbacked Missouri State0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Arkansas State53c6,953$3,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,267.832766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Missouri State48c6,858$3,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,291.7138450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas State51c6,656$3,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,279.962,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3379…549abacked Missouri State51c5,506$2,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Missouri State37c5,494$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.4462843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Arkansas State49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55024348.1%117 W · 126 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Missouri State48c4,332$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Arkansas State49c4,233$2,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,158.758948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…cc46backed Missouri State51c3,671$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8871553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Missouri State48c3,325$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5963240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Arkansas State48c3,204$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68019849%97 W · 101 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Arkansas State52c3,165$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.1911851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Arkansas State52c2,957$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.781833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d81…e643backed Arkansas State54c2,750$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Missouri State30c2,072$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.5263243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Missouri State49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98012450.8%63 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Arkansas State53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.793100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Missouri State1c1,876$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.322370.8%2 W · 235 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-98.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Missouri State2c1,726$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.128043.8%35 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas State51c1,705$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9552449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Arkansas State52c1,696$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.2221348.8%104 W · 109 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Missouri State47c1,623$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.31714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-67.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Missouri State49c1,455$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-50%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff17…c0edbacked Missouri State2c1,406$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.141233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arkansas State48c1,320$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.489444.7%42 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x196b…5836backed Missouri State52c1,298$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d54…93a5backed Arkansas State49c1,233$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa83e…dceebacked Arkansas State49c1,227$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Arkansas State47c1,200$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.9925629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78e4…ed43backed Missouri State52c1,162$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Missouri State48c1,146$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5505149%25 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Missouri State21c1,011$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9255350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x467e…4343backed Arkansas State51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4904100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+124.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b7f…cc1fbacked Arkansas State52c960.75$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Missouri State53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011142.3%47 W · 64 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x296b…310cbacked Arkansas State48c885.6$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7842…053dbacked Arkansas State48c879.18$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Arkansas State50c879.02$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.367642.1%32 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a15…0037backed Missouri State52c863.66$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59de…b423backed Missouri State52c842.92$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1b…b66dbacked Missouri State52c841.43$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88af…8b52backed Missouri State52c828.12$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x069b…3574backed Arkansas State48c821.16$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3555…9a9abacked Arkansas State48c792$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Arkansas State52c769$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.1219051.6%98 W · 92 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Missouri State51c750$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Missouri State27c740$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0364841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Missouri State17c720.2$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.879124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Missouri State48c700$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33610242.2%43 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b8…a8ebbacked Arkansas State54c690.74$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d1…c018backed Missouri State53c637.26$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Missouri State52c612.44$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.856847.1%32 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0f…09debacked Missouri State48c612.24$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.924037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Missouri State2c588.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9386243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Missouri State48c577.08$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2772352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Missouri State48c556.9$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.311233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Missouri State48c528$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.4417361.3%106 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Arkansas State52c499.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2404156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Missouri State48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2579…be5bbacked Missouri State48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Missouri State6c403.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236233.9%21 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arkansas State48c400$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20710346.6%48 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Missouri State47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+104.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Missouri State47c400$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18942244.5%188 W · 234 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Missouri State36c352$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.716753.7%36 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Missouri State48c310.74$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1626846.3%124 W · 144 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2121…6127backed Arkansas State48c300.91$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.472100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+170.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd1a…92abbacked Missouri State53c300.91$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Arkansas State52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14410944%48 W · 61 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Missouri State48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1448142%34 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Missouri State23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked Arkansas State51c299.99$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1486241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Missouri State47c299.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9913242.4%56 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180f…87fdbacked Missouri State21c298.2$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Missouri State23c286$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7820553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Arkansas State53c280$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.620950.2%105 W · 104 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc048…8583backed Missouri State50c280$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Missouri State31c261.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3626940.5%109 W · 160 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Arkansas State50c258.77$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3550358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f6…f838backed Missouri State48c248.56$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.317749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Missouri State48c245.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Missouri State7c241.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.88333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Arkansas State52c238.46$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf642…0c19backed Missouri State30c234.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705147.1%24 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x227c…a303backed Missouri State23c228.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.