College Football · resolved market
Spread: Missouri State (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x100927f5bcfc98800863b3ed60c433f008fd3db918faa724b973fd395168852c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Stateof Missouri State, Arkansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Arkansas State | 51c | 14,613$7,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,160.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Missouri State | 49c | 12,213$5,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,946.57 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Missouri State | 45c | 6,016$2,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,707.39 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Arkansas State | 52c | 5,507$2,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.69 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Missouri State | 48c | 2,407$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.36 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Missouri State | 49c | 1,973$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.77 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Arkansas State | 52c | 1,861$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.8 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…8d9dbacked Arkansas State | 55c | 623.69$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Arkansas State | 52c | 493.36$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.81 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Missouri State | 49c | 200.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Missouri State | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Arkansas State | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Missouri State | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 48cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Missouri State | 49c | 68.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Missouri State | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Missouri State | 49c | 40.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21a…c2c3backed Arkansas State | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…92ecbacked Missouri State | 49c | 25.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Missouri State (-1.5)this page
- Missouri State vs. Arkansas StateArkansas State won
- Missouri State vs. Arkansas State: O/U 54.5Over won
- Missouri State vs. Arkansas State: O/U 55.5Over won
- O/U 56.5Over won
- Spread: Arkansas State (-1.5)Arkansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.