Movies · resolved market
Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4fcf0605c336360ea7a01cac2c12162b47b322433d161251d9f2151ca3ee64a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 61c | 7,709$4,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.18 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 45c | 3,417$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.48 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 54c | 3,095$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.16 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed18…315cbacked No | 4c | 2,647$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…2af5backed No | 70c | 2,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 45c | 2,146$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.48 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 43c | 2,073$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.36 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 29c | 1,930$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.3 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 27c | 1,577$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 61c | 1,466$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.39 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 27c | 1,400$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.5 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 36c | 1,061$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 55c | 1,023$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.54 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 46c | 836.27$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.95 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 791.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 53c | 743.07$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 24c | 582.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.85 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 72c | 490.35$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.18 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 53c | 424.39$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 46c | 329.24$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.77 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3400…14eebacked No | 7c | 295.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 64c | 291.96$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 5c | 240.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.54 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 13c | 235.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.67 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 54c | 229.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 36c | 226.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.78 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 44c | 216.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.09 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 7c | 195.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 35c | 186.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 74c | 177.78$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 57c | 170.09$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 167.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 75c | 148.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 14c | 128.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 115.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 44c | 114.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 111.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 51c | 105.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 50c | 90.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 19c | 85.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 32c | 78.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 77c | 63.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…c6bfbacked Yes | 30c | 45.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 31c | 42.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…409fbacked Yes | 34c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…fe95backed Yes | 37c | 36.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 36.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f0…43d1backed Yes | 38c | 35.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?this page
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m and 12m?No won
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13.5m?No won
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10.5m?No won
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.