Movies · resolved market
Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x763d27da3f49554000db5f8e5e32508ad2d31f8228d7869d44bcbd8b2714ea1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 3,820$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 24c | 2,088$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.75 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 32c | 1,249$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 10c | 1,170$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,102$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 38c | 1,052$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.87 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 35c | 788.43$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.72 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 68c | 785.48$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.76 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 28c | 480.31$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 20c | 396.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 38c | 391.16$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.14 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 329.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 25c | 262.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…c1c0backed Yes | 42c | 237.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 45c | 216.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…7d32backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 61c | 154.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 143.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 17c | 94.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 88.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 22c | 68.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…c6bfbacked Yes | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 41c | 59.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 65c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10.5m?this page
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m and 12m?No won
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13.5m?No won
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13.5m?No won
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.