Movies · resolved market
Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m and 12m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63df80a5c2affbfe3f77fd9d1ae4bc7269c6e4ca7bc503edf162945c3da40016
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 8c | 5,030$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.05 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,766$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 11c | 1,606$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 19c | 1,465$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.78 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 7c | 1,453$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,164$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.35 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 4c | 949.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 829.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 9c | 782.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 613.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 27c | 582.92$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 9c | 563.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 32c | 469.8$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 9c | 399.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 345.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 306.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 280.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 235$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 9c | 216.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 12c | 216.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ea…4524backed Yes | 9c | 212.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 20c | 191.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2407…7dcabacked Yes | 36c | 140.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 79c | 126.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 14c | 103.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c86…e223backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 16c | 99.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 16c | 81.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m and 12m?this page
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13.5m?No won
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10.5m?No won
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13.5m?No won
- Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.