Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaab06adb4aca00fbf58217222cae9f4591fc84120fb8d99fe5667242438c09a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 4,272$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.62 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 66c | 2,487$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb509…c01dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,304$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…50ffbacked No | 51c | 1,880$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,539$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x303d…a1c9backed No | 54c | 1,474$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…3d87backed No | 72c | 1,352$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 21c | 1,335$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.39 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 51c | 1,188$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.06 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 6c | 1,186$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,100$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.99 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…25edbacked No | 37c | 1,027$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda1f…2c9fbacked No | 64c | 1,022$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 33c | 862.52$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.02 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…4a82backed Yes | 2c | 793.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…e48fbacked No | 78c | 774.98$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 14c | 672.09$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.09 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf58f…37a4backed Yes | 70c | 606.38$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed Yes | 52c | 581.03$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.79 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 21c | 556.38$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 24c | 500$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…e399backed No | 37c | 462.68$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes | 32c | 444.74$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 46c | 429.54$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.1 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 70c | 416.26$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.1 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 2c | 414.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed No | 32c | 410.66$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.86 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 61c | 406.44$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe19c…0b8dbacked No | 71c | 392.5$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 37c | 386.82$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.16 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 33c | 383.45$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 28c | 378.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.38 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…5292backed Yes | 77c | 350.06$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…ce5fbacked No | 47c | 321$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 77c | 316.47$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…eb86backed No | 42c | 313$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…d820backed Yes | 10c | 309.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…8b45backed Yes | 38c | 254.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 37c | 252.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 24c | 240.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 25c | 232.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 40c | 224.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 53c | 221.62$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed Yes | 47c | 214.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 71c | 201.81$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 52c | 200.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…662ebacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 64c | 188.61$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…feb7backed No | 42c | 188.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 18c | 179.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.59 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 23c | 175.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 38c | 171.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes | 36c | 166.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…bf57backed Yes | 43c | 159$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 23c | 148.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed No | 27c | 144.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…ab7dbacked Yes | 26c | 143.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…9c32backed No | 57c | 134.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 26c | 134.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…4cc3backed No | 75c | 134.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed No | 38c | 131.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…8818backed No | 69c | 131$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 13c | 119.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 23c | 119.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…c024backed No | 24c | 116$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 63c | 104.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 103.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cc…5939backed No | 66c | 101.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked No | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 73c | 98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes | 21c | 94.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 54c | 92.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 63c | 90.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 57c | 89.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…cd13backed No | 61c | 89.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 88.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed No | 46c | 86.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x833b…d4bbbacked Yes | 46c | 86.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 56c | 86.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked No | 27c | 85.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad1…d674backed No | 64c | 78.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…a694backed Yes | 36c | 78.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 43c | 78.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1217…4b74backed No | 44c | 75.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…ab94backed No | 41c | 73.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…0229backed No | 25c | 72.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…bb83backed Yes | 58c | 71.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 70.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 52c | 69.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed No | 27c | 69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 50c | 68.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 58c | 68.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.