TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,828 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110a…38a8backed Yes4c4,272$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.621879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes66c2,487$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6308056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb509…c01dbacked Yes0c2,304$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5260%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked No51c1,880$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes4c1,539$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.426061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x303d…a1c9backed No54c1,474$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.121225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x466a…3d87backed No72c1,352$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.23475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed No21c1,335$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.396752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes51c1,188$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.0640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes6c1,186$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.933923.1%9 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes26c1,100$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.995040%20 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8da5…25edbacked No37c1,027$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.27875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+63.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xda1f…2c9fbacked No64c1,022$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No33c862.52$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.0221333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffb…4a82backed Yes2c793.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b10…e48fbacked No78c774.98$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.171643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No14c672.09$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.0917740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf58f…37a4backed Yes70c606.38$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.231353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+104.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7329…d562backed Yes52c581.03$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.792055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes21c556.38$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.496018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes24c500$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12213950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb7…e399backed No37c462.68$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.47966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes32c444.74$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes46c429.54$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.16041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes70c416.26$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.134440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes2c414.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1711816.1%19 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed No32c410.66$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.8617128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes61c406.44$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24614335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe19c…0b8dbacked No71c392.5$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.311353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick65cpaid+12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes37c386.82$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes33c383.45$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5423525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No28c378.41$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.3840939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x137e…5292backed Yes77c350.06$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-80.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29f1…ce5fbacked No47c321$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No77c316.47$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.514245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8778…eb86backed No42c313$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.11757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56fa…d820backed Yes10c309.81$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7979…8b45backed Yes38c254.91$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.881457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes37c252.88$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1536750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes24c240.44$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2235819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No25c232.39$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.171540%6 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+55.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes40c224.37$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1417646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes53c221.62$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4264…4811backed Yes47c214.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes71c201.81$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.915629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes52c200.72$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.617850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.315639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79f…662ebacked No46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No64c188.61$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6122262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xebb6…feb7backed No42c188.46$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No18c179.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.5910121.8%22 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No23c175.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.638132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed Yes38c171.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes36c166.74$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.631040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb60…bf57backed Yes43c159$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.941136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes23c148.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.437025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed No27c144.04$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.472142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…ab7dbacked Yes26c143.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.71020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-49.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes35c140$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4911424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x616b…9c32backed No57c134.54$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes26c134.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.94318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7d…4cc3backed No75c134.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a0e…9036backed No38c131.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.911050%5 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb78…8818backed No69c131$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.19850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No13c119.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9911418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No23c119.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.342384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4520…c024backed No24c116$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes63c104.97$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1813440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c103.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3934234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53cc…5939backed No66c101.95$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa306…9802backed Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-45.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x876e…e2ffbacked No20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337233.3%24 W · 48 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes11c99.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9531344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes73c98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.054748.9%23 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+46.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes21c94.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.921662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes54c92.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503423.5%8 W · 26 L-7.1wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes63c90.94$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8716173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes57c89.71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516434.4%22 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc7…cd13backed No61c89.47$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c88.85$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5886542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed No46c86.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.973256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x833b…d4bbbacked Yes46c86.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes56c86.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0420235.6%72 W · 130 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked No27c85.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.162626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed No24c80$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.87618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.886657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaad1…d674backed No64c78.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae67…a694backed Yes36c78.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.481353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes43c78.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.254949%24 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1217…4b74backed No44c75.4$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+93.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd2…ab94backed No41c73.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a21…0229backed No25c72.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+75%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb90a…bb83backed Yes58c71.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+86.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No18c70.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0930649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x135c…85e8backed Yes52c69.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368333.7%28 W · 55 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed No27c69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No50c68.75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6431719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No58c68.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.694151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.