TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,063 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe598…a0a8backed No3c27,885$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.395623.2%13 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No1c6,698$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.819930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No2c5,498$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9620549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No9c5,000$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4323534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No16c3,222$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.8221333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e47…3715backed No0c3,080$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No20c2,205$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.2935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e09…ab25backed Yes68c1,770$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.111040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No33c1,111$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.621662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes70c1,084$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.2323839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f80…7be8backed Yes79c642.3$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.423672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb5a…5ce7backed No3c534.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.68520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-71.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed5…4c36backed No3c472.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes72c471.8$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.567850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes69c426.4$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.1640939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes67c412.9$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9238247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes57c399.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes71c389.51$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.3410165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No41c354.88$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4747334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No40c333.44$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1315643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No42c305.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.523246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes67c300.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.76752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No40c256.61$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.211723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes64c254.5$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.892050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No21c246.17$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.666240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No7c240.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7226616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed No42c236.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…0d9dbacked No45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No16c205.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2131719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No23c204$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9931344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No5c200.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed No33c199.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed No6c199.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No18c199.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3555…1c78backed Yes58c165.79$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.031457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827e…0c05backed No13c163.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes63c158.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.171618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f9…2697backed Yes64c157.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.423432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb144…0c8abacked Yes66c151.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27fd…8b56backed No40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5352…a8d3backed No43c146.33$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.921457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No16c146$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.366018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed No18c127.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.481879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6301…c97dbacked No40c111.15$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5db3…6758backed No43c108.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9a…9738backed No22c91.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be6…2280backed No22c90.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e9…227bbacked Yes58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.21742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa28c…c290backed No44c83.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8809…6e34backed Yes67c82.48$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.481936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+60.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a37…093fbacked No45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2fd2…ddd4backed No36c74.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90bf…3348backed Yes70c71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.36633.3%22 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.978132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed No22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.219534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2d…5a69backed Yes57c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+73.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes59c56.03$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8210041%41 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb4…1ee7backed No46c54.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes65c54.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.663969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xb208…90f7backed Yes67c52.21$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.211127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9221…03a6backed Yes69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.53836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb84d…8b3abacked No40c49.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48fd…9450backed No43c48.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e5…cb25backed No41c48.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306e…ec7cbacked No43c46.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x23f9…310dbacked No45c44.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+56.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f8…83fcbacked No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a73…9daabacked No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4455…174abacked No45c42.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b8…4af7backed Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.24057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x173d…dc87backed No43c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.18650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+84.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc7f…adebbacked No43c34.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+80.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes79c34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.143228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17f8…240abacked No45c33.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa67d…a852backed Yes67c31.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-75.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e7…9281backed Yes65c30.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed Yes47c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.87354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Yes80c25.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.022050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8632…e3bfbacked No54c20.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa709…72c0backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.