Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66461a2f42ce3daca7967dfb80967a6a320e7552dbc80684c1234d47a957c163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 3c | 27,885$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.39 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 1c | 6,698$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 2c | 5,498$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 9c | 5,000$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 16c | 3,222$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.82 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…3715backed No | 0c | 3,080$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 20c | 2,205$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.29 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…ab25backed Yes | 68c | 1,770$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 33c | 1,111$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 70c | 1,084$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.23 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 79c | 642.3$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…5ce7backed No | 3c | 534.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…4c36backed No | 3c | 472.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 72c | 471.8$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 69c | 426.4$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.16 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 67c | 412.9$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.92 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 57c | 399.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 71c | 389.51$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.34 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 41c | 354.88$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 40c | 333.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.13 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 42c | 305.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 67c | 300.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 40c | 256.61$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 64c | 254.5$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 21c | 246.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 240.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed No | 42c | 236.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…0d9dbacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 16c | 205.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 23c | 204$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 5c | 200.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed No | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed No | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…1c78backed Yes | 58c | 165.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827e…0c05backed No | 13c | 163.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 63c | 158.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 64c | 157.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb144…0c8abacked Yes | 66c | 151.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fd…8b56backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…a8d3backed No | 43c | 146.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 16c | 146$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 18c | 127.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…c97dbacked No | 40c | 111.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db3…6758backed No | 43c | 108.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…9ff3backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…9738backed No | 22c | 91.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…2280backed No | 22c | 90.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…227bbacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…c290backed No | 44c | 83.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed Yes | 67c | 82.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a37…093fbacked No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…ddd4backed No | 36c | 74.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2d…5a69backed Yes | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 59c | 56.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 46c | 54.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 65c | 54.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…90f7backed Yes | 67c | 52.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…03a6backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…8b3abacked No | 40c | 49.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…9450backed No | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e5…cb25backed No | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…ec7cbacked No | 43c | 46.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…310dbacked No | 45c | 44.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f8…83fcbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a73…9daabacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…174abacked No | 45c | 42.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…4af7backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…dc87backed No | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7f…adebbacked No | 43c | 34.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f8…240abacked No | 45c | 33.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…a852backed Yes | 67c | 31.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed Yes | 65c | 30.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…e3bfbacked No | 54c | 20.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…72c0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.