TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,111
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,111 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3164…3033backed Yes56c3,596$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0208056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes1c3,135$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.01698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c2,992$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.321879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed No77c2,606$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe333…b1e4backed Yes1c2,137$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes43c2,005$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.4542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No50c1,900$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.4736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x789c…56aebacked Yes1c1,663$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8b…b000backed Yes7c1,337$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes45c1,297$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.458552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e66…283abacked Yes61c896.24$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.952740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c749.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cfc…ee99backed No42c731.41$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes15c718.09$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.715330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes67c644.3$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.4723525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No73c602.91$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.522737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes52c600$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31217931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f5e…27debacked Yes4c522.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked Yes3c450$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c446.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c433.02$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.641,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0a…5f58backed Yes40c402.62$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.691145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes62c349.99$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2176944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d15…156abacked Yes6c329.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8193…0e5abacked No80c326.49$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.491353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No34c300$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1995042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes37c271.31$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.426549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked No47c232.38$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.882626.9%7 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-50.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes6c229.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.481976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No29c201.78$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.268530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…4085backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8260…5bdebacked Yes5c199.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes78c191.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502060%12 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes44c178.09$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.143935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes31c160$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3356336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No56c159.91$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.017035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…2886backed Yes66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ba…123bbacked Yes39c150.29$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+53.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f23…27cbbacked Yes69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-33.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes56c143.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2145843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc850…a960backed No35c142.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes76c142.34$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10817347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a0…17edbacked Yes75c141.95$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed No23c140.93$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.219334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes29c140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.63030%9 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes49c137.29$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.066061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x872c…40e0backed Yes73c136.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeecc…ef84backed No67c132.21$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.216547.7%31 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa8…fc2dbacked No46c127.41$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes74c125.19$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.255253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1b…2552backed No19c122.42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.421233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…3790backed No65c120$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes63c114$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9785725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4f5e…1773backed No32c113.84$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.912352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes46c110.53$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6735355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes70c105.16$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.294678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c103.75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+131.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc631…cfd9backed Yes78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…6f83backed Yes55c99.14$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x338e…646ebacked No25c98.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+292.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No41c95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0527233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked No27c92.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.03450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+151.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x876e…e2ffbacked No39c86.95$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.763435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99d4…bbeebacked No36c83.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+165.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a7…26b5backed Yes69c72.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d9d…3585backed No35c71.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+91.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes52c71.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.093537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked No36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.89410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked No24c70$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+84.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No29c69.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6931344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fa7…3058backed No29c69.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+89.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4259…951abacked No29c68.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.67944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick15cpaid+1,986.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7b4…4fb7backed Yes37c67.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+113.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9221…03a6backed Yes74c66.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.13836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No46c65.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4231719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c33…8c23backed No47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fac…e8aebacked Yes63c63.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac94…8d12backed No69c63.21$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No25c62.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.376018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a07…0d37backed No37c62.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No31c61.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.68296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad4…f9b7backed No37c60.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+198%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e2f…1adfbacked No78c59.24$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…254ebacked No27c55.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+84.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b1…29fdbacked No38c55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ec…e516backed No36c54.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+174.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7b…af22backed No37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.051080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+64%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No36c53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1833337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5880…d5bebacked No65c50.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b2…6e79backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x958f…a83cbacked Yes72c49.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.991827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.8wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-53.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x19b4…9518backed Yes40c49.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb89…9469backed No32c48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.766546.2%30 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No68c46.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1518929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4221…7364backed Yes40c46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-63.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb957…b8acbacked No38c45.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.461681.3%13 W · 3 L+6.2wins+0.39per pick42cpaid+115.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1d64…a04dbacked No28c44.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No24c44.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1326616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4c5…a3fcbacked No69c44.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.