Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3af665ecb0973e954aee3fbbda3fc48b75aaa8595f3c9065e8ce7bbc0699c316
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a0…f065backed Yes | 27c | 15,624$4,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,207.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed No | 27c | 3,312$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.96 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 4c | 3,276$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 72c | 2,917$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.33 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…ab25backed Yes | 75c | 2,200$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba7…ab1fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,174$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 16c | 2,102$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.68 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cb…bbf0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 67c | 1,998$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.33 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 56c | 1,700$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.99 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,188$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 11c | 1,068$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 70c | 900$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.2 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 817.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…25edbacked No | 44c | 815.92$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…6273backed Yes | 4c | 796.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 16c | 703.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 30c | 670.09$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.89 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…589ebacked Yes | 2c | 629.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x609e…a64fbacked Yes | 6c | 625.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 63c | 622.1$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.31 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed No | 29c | 589$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 52c | 562.86$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.9 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fd…4373backed Yes | 18c | 554$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fc…694dbacked Yes | 78c | 538.2$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 399.98$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 71c | 387$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.77 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…4324backed No | 36c | 385.63$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +307.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 73c | 385$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 12c | 377.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 26c | 329.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 20c | 318.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed Yes | 35c | 303.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…92e9backed No | 65c | 297.71$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 70c | 294.49$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed No | 35c | 287.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 67c | 280$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 37c | 269.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 26c | 266.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 53c | 262.22$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.65 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 27c | 248$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked No | 40c | 235.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.39 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…b73cbacked Yes | 35c | 235.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 79c | 209.95$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.41 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 23c | 200$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.62 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 37c | 181$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 20c | 180$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 73c | 177.07$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed Yes | 60c | 167.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 27c | 166$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…5686backed No | 35c | 164.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 78c | 158.09$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 71c | 147$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd870…f631backed Yes | 11c | 138.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ac…a576backed Yes | 73c | 136.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked Yes | 80c | 135.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed No | 31c | 131$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…03a6backed Yes | 79c | 128$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…12b0backed Yes | 79c | 126.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b7…d0b1backed Yes | 33c | 120.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…dafabacked Yes | 80c | 95.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…ec7cbacked No | 38c | 92.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…7495backed No | 19c | 89.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed No | 46c | 87.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed No | 36c | 83.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 41c | 81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes | 30c | 79.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 69c | 79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.38per pick | 45cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 29c | 76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed Yes | 78c | 74.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked No | 29c | 71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e9cdbacked No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 68c | 66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed No | 32c | 66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…7632backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 56c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No | 44c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 71c | 62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…fba0backed Yes | 18c | 60.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…625abacked No | 35c | 57.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 66c | 57.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…b16bbacked Yes | 40c | 57.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed No | 36c | 56.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…7ba2backed Yes | 75c | 53.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 69c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f8…240abacked Yes | 59c | 51.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x275b…3206backed No | 30c | 50.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 46c | 47.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…dac2backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4071…3de4backed No | 56c | 41.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…3e8cbacked No | 37c | 40.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…316abacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.