Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd085ba8504d4f2f7de7278ba33539a8b97d6c9f12466349d05d7e89f6f2d318a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 32c | 676.94$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.24 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 76c | 645.5$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.36 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 23c | 642.63$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.45 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 18c | 599.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 11c | 519.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 44c | 491.65$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.32 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 18c | 449.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 22c | 403.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed No | 75c | 399.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 19c | 350$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 22c | 319.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f79…1db4backed No | 59c | 283.9$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…90e3backed Yes | 43c | 255.21$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fd…4373backed Yes | 44c | 227.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed No | 55c | 158.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…bac0backed No | 75c | 138.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…4ef3backed No | 74c | 135.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 68c | 134.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…f4b3backed No | 72c | 104.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 32c | 93.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fba…8a7dbacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 16c | 74.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…14c0backed No | 44c | 71.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…8046backed No | 75c | 67.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 37c | 66.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 53c | 60.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…7ebfbacked Yes | 35c | 57.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed No | 56c | 57.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…90f7backed Yes | 25c | 51.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…a55cbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…1f89backed No | 60c | 44.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 46c | 43.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…5b5cbacked No | 73c | 41.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f0…732ebacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…9e03backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…421abacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…231bbacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +64%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…316abacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…0001backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…7654backed No | 57c | 35.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed No | 54c | 35.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08e8…c62ebacked No | 66c | 30.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8a…5ba0backed No | 66c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…2a9abacked No | 55c | 29.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…c4ffbacked No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…daafbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed No | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…a14abacked No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…5748backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd135…a903backed No | 75c | 24.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed No | 50c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d25…b703backed No | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7957…ed88backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…612abacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…cd4abacked No | 75c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.