Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f3c80e96df9f0e0155734202c77ddf46fa8148a664420244960d47eb3f2c7fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86f9…96dcbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked No | 9c | 1,939$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 69c | 1,458$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.65 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 75c | 1,148$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.65 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 33c | 819.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.39 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 45c | 745.57$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.74 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…ed38backed No | 67c | 709.25$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 46c | 699.95$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 38c | 641.07$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65d…4de7backed No | 76c | 551.69$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 59c | 515.5$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.98 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed No | 65c | 499.98$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 66c | 390$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.3 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 45c | 371.21$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.05 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 14c | 350.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 34c | 350.04$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.33 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 54c | 340$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed No | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Yes | 35c | 276.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a7…2e3cbacked No | 79c | 252.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 40c | 230.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 14c | 212.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 55c | 206.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 60c | 205.01$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdf…df5abacked No | 67c | 174.06$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 42c | 151.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Yes | 48c | 149.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…f499backed Yes | 47c | 147.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 35c | 132.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 47c | 131.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…e4a1backed No | 51c | 124.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 34c | 119$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 54c | 100.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…5babbacked Yes | 53c | 75.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…78c9backed Yes | 33c | 60.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…2fb3backed No | 73c | 55.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 54c | 49.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked Yes | 26c | 49.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…4851backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 50c | 41.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe528…6385backed No | 73c | 41.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked No | 53c | 37.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 35c | 34.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…34cdbacked Yes | 77c | 30.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 45c | 29.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 43c | 25.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…c924backed No | 78c | 25.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…fe95backed Yes | 68c | 23.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…f829backed No | 76c | 22.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ea…0d78backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Yes | 68c | 18.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…0f82backed No | 69c | 17.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c5…8bd3backed Yes | 73c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…a297backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.