Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf1434be41b30c459aa5cfc6496596c75bc81866838f40cc09907a50dad033d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 9,954$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 1c | 5,087$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…36f4backed Yes | 75c | 2,878$2,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…5facbacked Yes | 38c | 2,623$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 1c | 1,944$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…4644backed Yes | 1c | 1,845$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…a2dcbacked Yes | 69c | 1,421$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…86bfbacked No | 25c | 1,337$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7c68backed No | 25c | 1,203$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,193$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.81 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 1,185$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.33 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…0e5abacked No | 21c | 957.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 2c | 932.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 75c | 921.36$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.82 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 45c | 785.06$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.16 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 73c | 740.88$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.87 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 73c | 639.07$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.69 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 72c | 603.17$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 599.97$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.37 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 54c | 556.28$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.62 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 30c | 532.52$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x095e…fd6bbacked No | 21c | 524.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…3acbbacked No | 35c | 520.57$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa86…2e0dbacked No | 19c | 484$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…d915backed No | 31c | 474.74$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 56c | 423.3$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.66 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 78c | 407.19$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.34 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 28c | 357.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 37c | 353.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.74 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…3005backed Yes | 35c | 342.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7eb…009cbacked No | 78c | 319.01$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 20c | 318.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.81 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…6f40backed No | 32c | 316.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…951abacked No | 20c | 303.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +1,986.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 17c | 294.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.09 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…b078backed No | 37c | 269.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…076dbacked Yes | 73c | 263.21$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…8d57backed No | 41c | 237.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x826b…b549backed Yes | 23c | 221.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…80acbacked No | 24c | 210.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…bd1dbacked No | 20c | 208.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.59per pick | 21cpaid | +302.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee87…4d9fbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 11c | 195.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.19 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…7010backed Yes | 63c | 192$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked No | 28c | 176.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +252.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 17c | 168.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.53 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…16babacked Yes | 79c | 165.75$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 24c | 163.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…f9b7backed No | 31c | 158.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +198%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 21c | 155.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked No | 13c | 153.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…58f0backed No | 26c | 151.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed No | 33c | 133.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cbacbacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…11a8backed No | 38c | 130.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 61c | 129.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 20c | 128.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b2…1237backed Yes | 28c | 112.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…5f58backed No | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 32c | 108.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…2414backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…22fabacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082e…cd4cbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…ef62backed No | 18c | 99.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…03a6backed Yes | 79c | 99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 16c | 96.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa725…996ebacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb729…0740backed No | 20c | 95.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…f585backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf5…443bbacked No | 21c | 90.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +374.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 23c | 85.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 35c | 85.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked No | 23c | 80.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +6.2wins | +0.39per pick | 42cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6677…3576backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…24debacked Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 72c | 78.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes | 79c | 75.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…714dbacked Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…f05dbacked Yes | 23c | 69.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 30c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…2df3backed No | 37c | 64.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…f2ebbacked No | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 24c | 61.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…f339backed No | 18c | 61.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +165.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…9145backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 19c | 55.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…ae0fbacked No | 30c | 55.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed No | 69c | 51.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2479…32f4backed No | 40c | 50.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…cf52backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…56b0backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.