Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x203edbf803a16c87e11b55e31b88e5ef33d8f2ab499b9f3be12ac55e13e3c694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e56…a8acbacked Yes | 3c | 9,012$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 63c | 5,410$3,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,406.66 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 53c | 4,180$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.19 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 78c | 4,136$3,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.46 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 57c | 3,994$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.96 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 63c | 3,093$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.89 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 2,847$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 39c | 2,594$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.22 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed Yes | 7c | 2,535$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 2c | 2,499$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…fc1dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,045$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 58c | 1,817$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.02 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…bcf1backed Yes | 16c | 1,524$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 19c | 1,506$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.08 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 57c | 1,500$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed No | 31c | 1,500$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x659b…e764backed Yes | 2c | 1,482$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 33c | 1,474$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 11c | 1,474$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,200$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 48c | 1,195$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.79 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,124$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.09 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 39c | 1,072$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 67c | 1,030$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 10c | 965.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.15 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 4c | 860$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…5bd9backed Yes | 9c | 737.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 5c | 713.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked No | 26c | 666.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.58 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…8880backed Yes | 4c | 554.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 50c | 541.89$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 24c | 508.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.09 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 49c | 507.32$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.2 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 73c | 506.06$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.06 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…5e97backed Yes | 39c | 497.81$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 26c | 485.19$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.6 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 53c | 459.8$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.31 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd95a…f86dbacked Yes | 15c | 457.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6429…33fcbacked No | 45c | 431.89$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +283.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 43c | 423.08$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.32 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 36c | 404.82$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.27 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 17c | 400$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 62c | 400$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 34c | 382.88$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.74 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…eae9backed Yes | 77c | 381.16$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +168%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked Yes | 62c | 373.11$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…55acbacked Yes | 5c | 362.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 50c | 360.14$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.66 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed Yes | 32c | 344.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…34e6backed Yes | 9c | 331.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 27c | 323.02$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.19 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e194backed Yes | 6c | 321.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…d913backed Yes | 8c | 319.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 67c | 277.34$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…e177backed No | 33c | 274.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 8c | 256.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 78c | 255.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes | 6c | 248$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed No | 61c | 245.79$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked No | 74c | 240$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 50c | 240$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.55 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…a211backed Yes | 75c | 238.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed No | 63c | 208.3$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 18c | 200.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed No | 55c | 193.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 19c | 191.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…53cabacked No | 72c | 187$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…de26backed No | 51c | 186.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 41c | 179.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…8b8bbacked Yes | 37c | 175.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 15c | 169.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.79 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 167.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b13…2c26backed No | 71c | 166.46$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 28c | 160.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.3 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 35c | 158.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed No | 33c | 154.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…1c78backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…d1bdbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed No | 13c | 144.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.3 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 28c | 143.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…ea5abacked No | 70c | 142.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5121…ae54backed Yes | 52c | 131.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…f9aabacked No | 57c | 128.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 40c | 127.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 30c | 115.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…453cbacked No | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3678…f584backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0784…6819backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…ea41backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0e…c40bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.