Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x180d0291d600ceca30ed04d6f3a631a1932b459d7be80b6f94d1d5d9ffb3af6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed No | 77c | 4,010$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.56 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…d820backed Yes | 1c | 2,215$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 41c | 896.76$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.16 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 64c | 700$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 31c | 699.99$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 73c | 684.23$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.09 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a3…8ce7backed No | 65c | 595.56$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked No | 50c | 590$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 36c | 577.1$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.89 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 34c | 547.21$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.61 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…99f3backed Yes | 4c | 498.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 34c | 436.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 34c | 426.23$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 23c | 399.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 6c | 382.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…ab7dbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 57c | 287$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…78c9backed Yes | 11c | 278.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 274.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 29c | 243.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 36c | 210$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 50c | 200.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf895…7aafbacked Yes | 7c | 196.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed Yes | 35c | 170.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 8c | 170.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…69d5backed No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 67c | 124.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…4811backed Yes | 41c | 123.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 25c | 115.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…8056backed No | 65c | 108.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…b72bbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +95%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae44…b7fbbacked No | 66c | 91.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 34c | 89.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed No | 45c | 74.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…89e2backed No | 66c | 72.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked Yes | 30c | 70.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 37c | 70.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…5babbacked Yes | 57c | 70.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 31c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 61c | 41.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9221…03a6backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…767bbacked Yes | 51c | 38.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 32c | 32.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5c…a593backed No | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910b…ff42backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaaa…c33cbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 53c | 27.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfe…c0adbacked Yes | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked Yes | 49c | 20.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…0315backed No | 67c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 63c | 16.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…c3cfbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +186.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.