Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81c967361b7573499f1dd63b75fa0c60ecf2fb3929d05f2f763897b107c6ba07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x742b…d9a2backed No | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2092…b6d8backed No | 8c | 7,168$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 2c | 4,905$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…9ceabacked No | 0c | 4,600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…c601backed No | 11c | 4,253$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6614…e07abacked No | 0c | 2,943$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 10c | 2,892$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.69 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…78fcbacked No | 39c | 2,829$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…36f4backed No | 8c | 1,783$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 2c | 1,200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 32c | 950.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 65c | 923.25$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.49 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed No | 5c | 784.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f08…ad05backed No | 4c | 746.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 6c | 699.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…324abacked No | 24c | 503.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 44c | 450$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed No | 28c | 425$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…2c53backed No | 25c | 394.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 77c | 373.56$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…a960backed No | 31c | 342.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed No | 65c | 339.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…dca9backed No | 11c | 309.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed No | 6c | 302.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6039…03a0backed No | 43c | 292.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9710backed No | 7c | 281.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…1cf3backed Yes | 72c | 277.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 15c | 258.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 9c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 77c | 234.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 80c | 222$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 32c | 216.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 29c | 210$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 44c | 208.6$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 46c | 206.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 25c | 200.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 23c | 199.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked No | 30c | 199.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 51c | 177$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed No | 40c | 172$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…599ebacked No | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 60c | 152$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 73c | 145.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…eac7backed No | 25c | 137.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f1…fe4ebacked Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 10c | 108.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…3694backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 23c | 99.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 66c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 78c | 94.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 58c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 25c | 82.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…b5b5backed No | 26c | 79.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 78.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked No | 26c | 77.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed Yes | 49c | 73.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 23c | 66.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a2…c73ebacked No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…2a7bbacked No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…abeabacked No | 26c | 57.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e94…7670backed No | 38c | 53.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8e…d314backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…6d43backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6375…1659backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 54c | 44.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…2814backed No | 23c | 44.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…f2ebbacked No | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede8…e1c6backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef8…7291backed No | 35c | 33.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…de5ebacked Yes | 62c | 28.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…3ae0backed No | 39c | 27.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 76c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -14.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.