TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes17c2,730$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.0617740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes1c2,592$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.18698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes16c2,166$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.988641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes39c1,035$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40817128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed Yes22c999.97$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.993933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes6c909.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.551879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes41c739.42$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9218…8a94backed No79c716.56$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1202839.3%11 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce7b…b13ebacked No55c499.98$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.992360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes13c425$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5713440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddf7…5122backed Yes27c415$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c400$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes17c399.08$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.017850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked No73c384$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.682254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8979…f003backed Yes24c375$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+64.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed Yes36c332$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.521650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes33c309.13$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0113950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa5c6…38b6backed No64c271.7$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.094753.2%25 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed Yes5c271$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.552437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes27c265$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.551637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed Yes27c240$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.81442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes29c239$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7356336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No80c237$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.41850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed No73c233$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.912025%5 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-52.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed No64c218$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.481250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3555…1c78backed Yes17c215.47$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.631457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3359…2273backed Yes32c213.53$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.33825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed Yes27c212$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.241338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f91…d531backed No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked No61c166$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.741457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e55…59d2backed Yes37c161$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.571030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24f8…351ebacked No63c161$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.571050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed No64c160$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.62236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c149.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes20c149$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed No73c146$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.421040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes20c138$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.62445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd9…6c92backed No73c138$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.26966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x871a…1451backed No57c129.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.591770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+58%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed Yes19c127.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.479334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c22…50e1backed Yes23c123$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.291241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes27c123$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.212445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf049…29fdbacked Yes29c123$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.671040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58f…fd67backed Yes18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed No77c120$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes27c119$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.131338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bfb…7632backed Yes45c115.56$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes27c112.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4c…44d8backed No73c110$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked No71c109$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.611872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28d6…f54ebacked Yes22c107$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.54425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed No77c106$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.59837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c42…a64bbacked Yes39c106$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked No68c105$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No76c103$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.691741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a5…99e3backed No67c99.97$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.991866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98e6…0b0abacked No73c99.8$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8392…e3a2backed Yes15c99.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9314420.8%30 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2795…6811backed No73c98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.461546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed No80c96$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+41.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No73c93$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.112751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed Yes22c93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.461833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes27c87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.492835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d82…3d02backed No68c86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed Yes23c85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed No68c82$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.24977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.64542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed Yes27c77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.792445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2f…a8aabacked No73c74$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.981050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+52.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed No61c65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.351844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes17c59.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.219534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No73c57$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.393243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No73c57$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.391346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No73c56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.12650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes27c56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.121250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f3…a7fabacked No61c55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.451154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+78.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes32c51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.321741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74e…7c9abacked No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.513140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes27c49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.232050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed Yes39c46.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.02933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes25c45.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5831719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked No70c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7517…5880backed Yes45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5544…802abacked No71c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.28977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67f1…3e4fbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed Yes43c29.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.87354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6244…a206backed No78c27.37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc61c…9314backed No77c25.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.91850%9 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No64c23.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2726616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No55c22.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x700f…de20backed No72c20.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.97977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0caf…e065backed No73c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.59944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed No64c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.761330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.