Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18683df4d68942a87eda06c2b12fe41d7de0beeb76aff36b1b52f8346488bcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 17c | 2,730$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.06 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 1c | 2,592$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 16c | 2,166$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.98 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 39c | 1,035$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 22c | 999.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 6c | 909.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 41c | 739.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9218…8a94backed No | 79c | 716.56$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 55c | 499.98$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 13c | 425$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed Yes | 27c | 415$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 400$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 17c | 399.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 73c | 384$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed Yes | 24c | 375$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 36c | 332$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 33c | 309.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 64c | 271.7$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 5c | 271$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 27c | 265$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed Yes | 27c | 240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 239$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 80c | 237$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 73c | 233$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 64c | 218$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…1c78backed Yes | 17c | 215.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed Yes | 32c | 213.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 27c | 212$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 61c | 166$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed Yes | 37c | 161$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…351ebacked No | 63c | 161$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 149.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 20c | 149$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 73c | 146$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 20c | 138$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed No | 73c | 138$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 57c | 129.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 19c | 127.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed Yes | 23c | 123$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 27c | 123$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf049…29fdbacked Yes | 29c | 123$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 27c | 119$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…7632backed Yes | 45c | 115.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 27c | 112.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…44d8backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 71c | 109$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…f54ebacked Yes | 22c | 107$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed No | 77c | 106$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked Yes | 39c | 106$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 76c | 103$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed No | 67c | 99.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e6…0b0abacked No | 73c | 99.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 15c | 99.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 73c | 98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 80c | 96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 73c | 93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed No | 68c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 68c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 27c | 77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked No | 73c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 17c | 59.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No | 73c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…7c9abacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed Yes | 39c | 46.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 25c | 45.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7517…5880backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…3e4fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed Yes | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…a206backed No | 78c | 27.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 64c | 23.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…de20backed No | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.