Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5df3b795bd06cd9e1d6b3184954bcf1eac7208a92f7ac2d92eb0845b5b374ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed No | 1c | 12,931$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 68c | 2,492$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 4c | 2,132$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 66c | 1,966$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.06 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed47…8344backed No | 1c | 1,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4623backed No | 2c | 1,888$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 20c | 1,785$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.37 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387f…4f1abacked No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…0cb7backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 75c | 1,202$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.2 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…f8f6backed No | 1c | 1,190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9367…b89dbacked No | 2c | 1,115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…4a82backed No | 3c | 1,083$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 45c | 956.54$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…3da4backed Yes | 31c | 636.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.91 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…69b8backed No | 3c | 600.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 5c | 600.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…3913backed Yes | 77c | 542.33$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.29 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 57c | 531.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.81 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 68c | 499.98$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 30c | 450$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.5 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 34c | 400$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 55c | 380$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.7 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 35c | 356.88$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.9 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…1f7dbacked No | 47c | 353.71$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 35c | 304.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.36 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…e5ffbacked No | 73c | 300$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed Yes | 34c | 298.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…e88bbacked Yes | 40c | 276.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.83 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 30c | 267.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.61 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…eb86backed No | 58c | 253$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 55c | 251.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.83 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 37c | 240.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.6 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 32c | 238.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.84 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 28c | 234.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.7 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 34c | 230$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…44f4backed No | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 60c | 175.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 28c | 166.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 21c | 166.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 164.73$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x303d…a1c9backed No | 67c | 163.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1992…c2d3backed No | 66c | 150.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 37c | 136.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 27c | 133.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fba…8a7dbacked No | 77c | 129.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 23c | 124.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 47c | 121$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf63…2216backed No | 68c | 119.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…acc6backed No | 71c | 114.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521d…e062backed No | 61c | 94.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 33c | 92.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…1b88backed No | 55c | 83.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491a…27ccbacked No | 64c | 80.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 32c | 78.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5b…2b07backed No | 65c | 77.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae0…910cbacked No | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9949…46bebacked No | 70c | 71.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked No | 71c | 70.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…92dbbacked No | 71c | 67.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…cd58backed No | 73c | 57.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…34c6backed No | 69c | 55.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…2590backed No | 73c | 54.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 59c | 54.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…ef18backed No | 61c | 51.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 54c | 50.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec5…536bbacked No | 69c | 49.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…7dafbacked Yes | 44c | 45.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 58c | 45.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…eda0backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 37.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 47c | 37.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…ff3dbacked No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed No | 70c | 34.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe404…a79bbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b41…37aebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4046…1861backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…7eb6backed No | 74c | 28.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…766fbacked No | 70c | 28.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.