Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf855b6eed399409575e2d3e3e26d838694a9053b6cb1698c04ae76220a39da5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 6,209$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,516$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 50c | 1,641$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.93 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 33c | 1,271$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.33 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 25c | 1,196$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 948.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 8c | 890$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 43c | 830.6$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.19 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 3c | 780$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…a526backed Yes | 69c | 699.99$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…fd58backed No | 32c | 620.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…cf9bbacked No | 75c | 599.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…77dbbacked No | 31c | 453.9$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 6c | 450$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6039…03a0backed No | 32c | 436.77$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 49c | 432.32$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.13 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…212fbacked No | 77c | 390.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd2…3efbbacked Yes | 9c | 359.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 45c | 350$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.88 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…1cf3backed No | 75c | 332.54$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ee…7967backed Yes | 7c | 314.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 20c | 290.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.2 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…13bfbacked No | 20c | 283.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +388.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed Yes | 58c | 237.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9252…15e5backed No | 44c | 229.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 41c | 213.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed Yes | 75c | 188.43$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 24c | 182.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…cfd0backed No | 51c | 164.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 159.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 26c | 158.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 147.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.29 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 35c | 146.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 8c | 136.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…2134backed Yes | 33c | 126.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…6a10backed Yes | 78c | 125.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 47c | 120.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1350…9e71backed Yes | 77c | 117.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 23c | 114.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 48c | 109.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 34c | 104.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6375…1659backed No | 39c | 102.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…14afbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 50c | 99.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdb…d13abacked No | 45c | 98.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 23c | 94.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 43c | 89.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…3ae0backed No | 39c | 84.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391e…ec9abacked No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6612…992abacked No | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb9…77fcbacked No | 50c | 67.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5563…3a69backed Yes | 52c | 64.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc36d…99ebbacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 27cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 78c | 64.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 46c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…c601backed No | 73c | 58.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 65c | 58.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 54c | 56.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…1ddcbacked Yes | 52c | 55.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 56c | 54.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea3…6ed0backed No | 37c | 54.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c73…1927backed No | 49c | 54.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…f2ebbacked No | 38c | 52.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 24c | 51.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 54c | 50.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…63ccbacked No | 40c | 50.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f1…fe4ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9717…ddf3backed Yes | 58c | 49.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 68c | 45.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…2a7bbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7063…9b11backed Yes | 69c | 43.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 47c | 42.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d44…b081backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b99…ae20backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…b7cfbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 69c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e03…d92fbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 39c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…f847backed Yes | 38c | 34.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebc…7c9abacked Yes | 52c | 34.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2830…557fbacked No | 50c | 33.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26af…6729backed No | 50c | 31.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 53c | 31.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ace…36e9backed Yes | 52c | 30.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d6…3ae3backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.