TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,399 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c4,635$27 inLost-$27.431879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01f4…2c5ebacked Yes1c2,805$25 inLost-$24.78933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes11c1,063$116 inLost-$115.5314335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes4c627.76$25 inLost-$24.5323839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes27c199.99$54 inLost-$5415331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7517…5880backed No70c152.14$107 inWon+$45.221070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…745ebacked No76c132.36$100 inWon+$32.362965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x871a…1451backed No70c100$70 inWon+$301770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+58%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No62c100$62 inWon+$384245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed Yes21c99.99$21 inLost-$216621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed No76c85.01$64 inWon+$20.526657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a10…bc65backed Yes30c80$24 inLost-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97be…d3ccbacked Yes48c40$19 inLost-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a17…6348backed No50c40$20 inWon+$201741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid+35.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x700f…de20backed No73c35.44$26 inWon+$9.57977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9a…9738backed Yes58c25.95$15 inLost-$151450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f6a…14a0backed No79c24.87$20 inWon+$5.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbba3…f017backed No64c17$11 inWon+$6.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.