Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94a51d548975cf09caf7e7cc4f3f68b6ed519e215dfa091ed761d5e18b8bf564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb89…9fdfbacked No | 0c | 10,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 1c | 6,617$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 0c | 5,555$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 9c | 4,368$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.03 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…beb1backed No | 1c | 2,713$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 77c | 2,301$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.06 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 5c | 2,265$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.51 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…190ebacked No | 1c | 2,077$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed No | 3c | 1,902$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed No | 15c | 1,306$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…856ebacked No | 1c | 1,103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 55c | 1,100$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.09 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc32f…cb35backed No | 8c | 986.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 28c | 911.26$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.68 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 11c | 394.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 80c | 391.98$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…df24backed No | 4c | 368.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 33c | 336.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.43 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 10c | 335.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked Yes | 46c | 312.25$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…b13ebacked No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…aaeebacked No | 68c | 295.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 73c | 281.9$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 75c | 266.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 39c | 253.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.77 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff9…0446backed No | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…8880backed Yes | 44c | 233.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 40c | 228.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.36 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 31c | 199.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 11c | 195.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa242…d67abacked No | 26c | 193.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 12c | 168.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…97b7backed Yes | 41c | 168.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed No | 65c | 145$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 39c | 136.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 14c | 132.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…8056backed No | 68c | 111.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…9314backed No | 39c | 102.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…4af7backed Yes | 78c | 102.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed No | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 54c | 99.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked Yes | 79c | 85.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…a6f2backed No | 69c | 84.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -47%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1687…906cbacked No | 17c | 74.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c5…8bd3backed Yes | 78c | 74.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7a…abfabacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…4b34backed Yes | 37c | 68.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbac…ee2fbacked No | 25c | 58.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7916…851dbacked No | 26c | 57.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 51c | 53.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…767bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c4f3backed Yes | 41c | 45.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c9…1078backed Yes | 56c | 33.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5125…601abacked Yes | 79c | 32.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…8332backed No | 55c | 31.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fba…8a7dbacked No | 79c | 31.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…7dafbacked Yes | 51c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa725…996ebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…3005backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…af86backed No | 69c | 28.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaaa…c33cbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc77…ea25backed No | 74c | 28.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…5d1cbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b39…492fbacked No | 75c | 26.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +83%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…eda6backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…4cccbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…199dbacked No | 66c | 22.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…5c6bbacked No | 66c | 21.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…064bbacked No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…7e26backed No | 67c | 16.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.