Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13bfbd7d85ba32d1be1ed7bf08cad132ffdfd1e982a256a5479404294100ebfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…066bbacked No | 57c | 423.41$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 79c | 409.84$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…0484backed No | 49c | 405.17$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 401.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…21ebbacked No | 77c | 400$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 67c | 387.01$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 17c | 356.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed No | 20c | 297.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 12c | 274.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 61c | 244.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 53c | 242.21$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed No | 8c | 234$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 20c | 227.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 78c | 223.31$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 59c | 216$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 43c | 199.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa721…b3f0backed No | 53c | 189.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…7ae6backed No | 60c | 167.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 44c | 153.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 38c | 150.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 22c | 141.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 44c | 140.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…df67backed No | 71c | 139.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 33c | 132.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe076…b110backed Yes | 38c | 129.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 22c | 119.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked No | 55c | 107.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…5278backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 39c | 86.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 49c | 81.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 29c | 78.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes | 51c | 78.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 66c | 72.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x32a5…99e3backed No | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed Yes | 69c | 68.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x704f…ef5dbacked Yes | 55c | 67.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31e…6e9abacked Yes | 57c | 66.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 26c | 65.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…7e00backed No | 65c | 62.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 62c | 60.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…b572backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…eb65backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 56.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c68…7fbfbacked No | 26c | 54.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…d867backed No | 58c | 51.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 39c | 49.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d5…b66fbacked No | 32c | 46.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 50c | 45.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 67c | 42.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2829…2988backed No | 53c | 37.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…817ebacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa167…729ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…e705backed Yes | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 55c | 36.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…2fb3backed Yes | 55c | 36.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…ec95backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7161…021bbacked Yes | 59c | 34.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…dac7backed Yes | 60c | 33.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…5616backed Yes | 47c | 31.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dce…dba5backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…10dcbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4623backed No | 51c | 23.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.