TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,807

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,978 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c2,810$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes62c1,595$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.978056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No57c1,200$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.5964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes70c1,010$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.062387%20 W · 3 L+4.9wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+43.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes13c912.5$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes51c854.98$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.2456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No42c759.29$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.3521333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes51c720$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.7417347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed No30c716.61$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a5…6a10backed No41c702.69$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.92520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No64c681.68$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2437850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes8c533.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23a8…8004backed Yes2c519.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+83.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes58c435.45$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.327817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No56c354.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.6812152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43a0…175dbacked No33c351.45$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.771050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b0…0f82backed No74c343.29$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes70c299.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No50c292.57$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.511978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes35c285.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.622420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes28c285.54$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes58c266$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8135355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed No42c253$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.182458.3%14 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+39.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No45c253$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed Yes36c243.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.914355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa414…d03dbacked No38c235.61$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.61771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick32cpaid+111.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed No77c234.02$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.511450%7 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes23c222$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0636750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0772…e8abbacked No50c208.48$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+53.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba7…dec0backed No36c200$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1291353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes50c199.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes16c199.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.947341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked No44c191$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.962441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes58c185$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.522842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes71c181$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.511118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-61.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed Yes55c173$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.152536%9 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffce…e88bbacked Yes49c161.81$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a17…6348backed Yes77c160$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.081741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid+35.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No29c152.75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4534440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked Yes56c152$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.121957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+58.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes67c147.71$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.855253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes46c142$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+72.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac3f…4931backed No39c138$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.68540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes56c133$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.482138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked No44c132.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.662634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7dc7…0a2bbacked No38c132.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.031127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11e…699fbacked No24c131.37$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No37c130.64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.620239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes61c130$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.218833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes18c120.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9450130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76e1…c5aabacked No46c118.91$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.924100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+101.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No29c112$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.522556%14 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No39c111$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.015646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+69.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed Yes68c108.87$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.785942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3894…66cebacked No59c102.53$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.531154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8312932.6%42 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.415643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Yes52c95.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No47c95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.351637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd992…96c0backed No34c93$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.382556%14 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes53c91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.231741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29b4…c17abacked Yes55c91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.051040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No40c90$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691f…e379backed No45c88.78$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed No54c86$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.56944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed No54c86$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.561145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed No44c82$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.921050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes55c81.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.576549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes61c80$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.619534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb28…3694backed No40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe555…782fbacked Yes67c74.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-3.3wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked No44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.22254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec7b…ce96backed No30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fbb…77eebacked No41c69$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.771050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…8085backed No29c69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeb4…1ee7backed No31c68.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.782552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…d3e0backed No33c60.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.031752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes46c58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.681428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes29c56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes58c55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.91931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed No27c54.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.892365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcfa…520dbacked No37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.05875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+68.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes68c54$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5413440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x306e…ec7cbacked Yes67c53.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.591323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bdc…2e7bbacked No32c51.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf180…0053backed Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.242548%12 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368144.4%36 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5352…a8d3backed No41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.781457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2b…2d21backed No40c48.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.911127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No38c48.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d97…9498backed No45c44.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aa6…634bbacked No34c44.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+196.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2430…36f4backed No40c44.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.621250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f4…4cccbacked No58c43.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331050%5 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed No34c42.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.889334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba8e…e305backed No36c41.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+81.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x935d…72f4backed No49c41.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4c…c1ddbacked No51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+103.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x866a…5275backed No36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+120.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.