Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcef0d7ca4b8c533bf02d8b34c750c745a3101742352054f891591490c75a68e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,810$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 62c | 1,595$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.97 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 1,200$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.59 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes | 70c | 1,010$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.06 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 13c | 912.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.05 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 51c | 854.98$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.24 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 42c | 759.29$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.35 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 51c | 720$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.74 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed No | 30c | 716.61$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…6a10backed No | 41c | 702.69$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 64c | 681.68$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 8c | 533.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 2c | 519.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 58c | 435.45$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.32 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 56c | 354.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43a0…175dbacked No | 33c | 351.45$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…0f82backed No | 74c | 343.29$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed No | 50c | 292.57$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.51 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes | 35c | 285.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 285.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 58c | 266$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.81 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 42c | 253$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.18 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 45c | 253$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed Yes | 36c | 243.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked No | 38c | 235.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed No | 77c | 234.02$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 23c | 222$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0772…e8abbacked No | 50c | 208.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…dec0backed No | 36c | 200$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 16c | 199.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 44c | 191$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 58c | 185$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 71c | 181$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 55c | 173$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…e88bbacked Yes | 49c | 161.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a17…6348backed Yes | 77c | 160$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 29c | 152.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 56c | 152$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 67c | 147.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 46c | 142$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…4931backed No | 39c | 138$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 56c | 133$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…17bbbacked No | 44c | 132.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked No | 38c | 132.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…699fbacked No | 24c | 131.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 37c | 130.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 61c | 130$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 18c | 120.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e1…c5aabacked No | 46c | 118.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 29c | 112$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No | 39c | 111$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed Yes | 68c | 108.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…66cebacked No | 59c | 102.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed Yes | 52c | 95.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed No | 34c | 93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 53c | 91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…e379backed No | 45c | 88.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 54c | 86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed No | 54c | 86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed No | 44c | 82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 55c | 81.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…3694backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Yes | 67c | 74.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…ce96backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbb…77eebacked No | 41c | 69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…1ee7backed No | 31c | 68.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…d3e0backed No | 33c | 60.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 46c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…937fbacked Yes | 29c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…e255backed No | 27c | 54.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfa…520dbacked No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 68c | 54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…ec7cbacked Yes | 67c | 53.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdc…2e7bbacked No | 32c | 51.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…a8d3backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…2d21backed No | 40c | 48.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 48.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…9498backed No | 45c | 44.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…634bbacked No | 34c | 44.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…36f4backed No | 40c | 44.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…4cccbacked No | 58c | 43.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 34c | 42.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…e305backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…72f4backed No | 49c | 41.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…c1ddbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…5275backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.