Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178daa3428373da76550f98e22183c965dcc77cc3c9e95fa2534f45edf2d0c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $728,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $735,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $728,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 9c | 20,698$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,923.24 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 4c | 16,533$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,829.97 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 9c | 14,656$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.89 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 58c | 11,823$6,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,012.9 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…6edabacked No | 4c | 11,543$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,133.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +682.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 5c | 10,994$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,409.63 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…3736backed No | 1c | 10,115$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,051.42 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked No | 5c | 9,154$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,707.38 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…36eebacked No | 8c | 8,999$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,240.47 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 38c | 8,778$3,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,440.31 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 35c | 8,714$3,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,673.22 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,882$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.78 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 6c | 6,996$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.93 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 41c | 6,952$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,075.36 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed0…6625backed No | 1c | 6,375$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,324 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +6,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 50c | 6,125$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090.31 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fa…9dffbacked No | 48c | 5,957$2,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 11c | 5,493$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,907.7 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 38c | 4,986$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,074.01 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 39c | 4,811$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,928.35 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…b1a5backed Yes | 5c | 4,582$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…4b34backed Yes | 58c | 4,565$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,655.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…4ca3backed No | 77c | 4,453$3,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 32c | 4,391$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…8a6fbacked No | 1c | 4,333$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +5,184.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 34c | 4,202$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,791.7 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…8833backed No | 2c | 4,174$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,083.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +690.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 8c | 4,142$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.29 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…951abacked No | 1c | 3,954$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,929.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +1,986.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…5ab5backed Yes | 17c | 3,800$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 43c | 3,794$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.98 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed Yes | 33c | 3,131$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 22c | 3,000$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 9c | 2,860$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,765$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 78c | 2,647$2,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.73 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 63c | 2,632$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.15 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…ebacbacked No | 1c | 2,609$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,585.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 2cpaid | +3,603.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 2,437$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.51 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 39c | 2,214$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.42 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 24c | 2,188$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.91 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9a…c495backed No | 2c | 2,184$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,147 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +5,802.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…158dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,146$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 27c | 2,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 18c | 1,919$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.03 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…2552backed No | 47c | 1,724$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 34c | 1,653$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.4 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb489…4944backed Yes | 32c | 1,650$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…7ab7backed No | 1c | 1,616$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +5,285.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 48c | 1,600$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.34 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 35c | 1,567$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.56 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 4c | 1,538$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.74 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed No | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 65c | 1,476$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.34 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6486…9329backed No | 1c | 1,471$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +6,436.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 26c | 1,450$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.2 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 1,418$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.65 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7844…e58bbacked No | 1c | 1,410$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +11,812.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 48c | 1,377$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…f158backed No | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +578.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed No | 43c | 1,312$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked No | 6c | 1,274$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.51 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e05…0d64backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +4,066.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed No | 26c | 1,212$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.91 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes | 21c | 1,199$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 5c | 1,159$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.71 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 8c | 1,150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.45 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed No | 3c | 1,094$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked No | 59c | 1,060$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0511…3069backed No | 2c | 1,030$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +861.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 66c | 1,018$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.37 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 45c | 1,010$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.17 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed No | 75c | 999.99$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 77c | 999.99$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 47c | 999.64$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.61 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 15c | 978.67$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.48 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 40c | 921.88$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.54 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 67c | 877.47$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.75 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 72c | 866.28$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.79 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 34c | 860.81$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.12 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Yes | 62c | 835.44$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…12ecbacked Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…5c8abacked Yes | 25c | 791.37$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 78c | 780$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…7274backed Yes | 19c | 752.29$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed No | 43c | 748.48$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 20c | 739.52$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked No | 21c | 733.46$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 21c | 695.35$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.9 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…a610backed No | 18c | 687.86$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 29c | 675.02$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.46 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 37c | 673.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.58 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 28c | 665.83$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.07 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 73c | 654.99$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.35 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 55c | 640$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.86 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d3…0e8fbacked No | 6c | 612.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,485%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…5f58backed No | 57c | 610.31$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 77c | 601.81$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.32 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 16c | 599.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.