TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x24f8…351e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Movies at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$234.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+212.5%+$80.92
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$31.8
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$26.34
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+85.2%+$11.04
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+75.4%+$31.39
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$18.81
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$42.56
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+117.4%+$34.56
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+58.7%+$59.57
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+56%+$43.08
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$47.52
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.74
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+183.5%+$88.68
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.75
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$52.17
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.5
Will the San Antonio Spurs make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.68
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick19cpaid+190.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $22M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$99.82
Over $12M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+33.3%+$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+233.3%+$49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.