Fed Rates · resolved market
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe47e2d6ea9b9427058b2a548d94d81daeef595a02241b2402b7144f1c8c6bd67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 7c | 18,105$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 67c | 3,333$2,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.89 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 6c | 2,666$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,033$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.8 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 40c | 701.74$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 76c | 671$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 60c | 623$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 3c | 597.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 57c | 583.85$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.8 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Yes | 49c | 478$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 21c | 459.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 409$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.82 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 47c | 402.24$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…0c00backed Yes | 49c | 398.76$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 369.12$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.33 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 15c | 369$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 16c | 352$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +513%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 15c | 343$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 64c | 333.69$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.61 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 60c | 330.72$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 31c | 300$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…e145backed Yes | 43c | 300$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…bb52backed Yes | 51c | 297.45$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 26c | 272$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 40c | 272$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed No | 73c | 259$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 7c | 254.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +469.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 58c | 250.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 31c | 248.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 17c | 243$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 240.45$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.89 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…7a33backed No | 51c | 240$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…21cfbacked Yes | 42c | 239.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 26c | 236$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 56c | 235$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 26c | 224$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +186.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 46c | 221.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 17c | 221$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 27c | 219$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 69c | 215$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 43c | 214$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed Yes | 36c | 210$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…a3b6backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 43c | 197.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked No | 71c | 193$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed Yes | 31c | 179$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 65c | 176.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 27c | 175$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 73c | 175$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +134%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 58c | 174$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 174$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 73c | 172$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 74c | 161$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed Yes | 37c | 155$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 27c | 154$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 57c | 153$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 67c | 153$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed No | 57c | 151$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked Yes | 49c | 147$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 68c | 145.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 50c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 17c | 136.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +500.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 27c | 133$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 37c | 125$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 123.85$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 62c | 120$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…351ebacked No | 73c | 119$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 74c | 118$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 117.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes | 32c | 116$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed No | 73c | 116$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed No | 55c | 114$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 70c | 110$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…2371backed Yes | 17c | 108.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +292.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes | 34c | 106$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 44c | 101$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 18c | 97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…62e9backed Yes | 27c | 96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 93.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 43c | 93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…474ebacked No | 65c | 92.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 63c | 89.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 22c | 82.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 18c | 81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +254.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc691…cb9fbacked No | 68c | 77.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 15c | 69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 16c | 65.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed No | 73c | 63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 63c | 62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked No | 60c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 28c | 59.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 27c | 58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 20c | 57.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?No won
- Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?No won
- Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.