Fed Rates · resolved market
Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac47f58c98596b70b4dcba88834a490880f5531afa2e3cd860bb25c09d704262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.13 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 7c | 3,133$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 9c | 2,100$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 6c | 1,362$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,033$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…c010backed Yes | 5c | 979.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e6…95c4backed Yes | 8c | 887.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed Yes | 9c | 700.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 7c | 599.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 6c | 506.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daa…debcbacked Yes | 9c | 464$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 16c | 370.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Yes | 8c | 334$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed Yes | 11c | 327.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…9c62backed Yes | 8c | 257.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 13c | 248.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 240$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 14c | 227$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 7c | 224.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 10c | 209.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 7c | 176.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 173.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 7c | 167.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…bd63backed Yes | 16c | 159.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 7c | 158.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…fa2abacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 9c | 137$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 113.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…c1a2backed Yes | 11c | 88.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 18c | 65.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?this page
- Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision?No won
- Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?No won
- Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?Yes won
- Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.